SAN ANTONIO — Contrary to popular belief, Juan Soto is not the only star free agent. In fact, it's a very balanced class, very strong in starting pitching and solid in most spots. Below are the top 40 with contract predictions (based on conversations with expert consultants).
1. Juan Soto: Shohei Ohtani's $700 million contract will be valued at $437.4 million (union valuation) with $680 million in deferrals, with nearly every big market team involved, including the Mets and now the Yankees. All things considered, he would receive the most valuable contract in history. At least the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and surprisingly the Rays will also be playing in the biggest derby. $630 million, 14 years.
2. Corbin Burns: One of the most stable and durable starters. He didn't pitch for a strikeout this year, but he was just as effective. The Orioles will try to keep him, but it will likely be difficult, at least with the Yankees, Mets, and other big teams involved. All of the high-earning teams in the AL East, plus the Giants and Dodgers, are expected to play Southern California teams. $210 million, 7 years.
3. Willie Adams: The athletic shortstop will earn more than $200 million in prize money. The Dodgers, Giants, and Braves are among those pursuing trade talks. A willingness to move to 3B could help his market. $180 million, 7 years.
4. Alex Bregman: In addition to a big second half — 17 of his 26 home runs came in the final three months — he had a great postseason performance that helped the excellent all-around player recover. He will likely consider leaving Houston (unlike longtime teammate Jose Altuve), but there's a good chance the Astros will do everything they can to keep him. $170 million, 7 years.
5. Max Fried: His 139 ERA+ ranks eighth all-time. Possible candidates include the Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Giants, and his hometown Dodgers. The Red Sox need a lefty. $166 million, 6 years.
6. Blake Snell: After two great seasons in a row, and a particularly big second half, his market has improved significantly. There's a good chance he'll return to San Francisco. The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox are also logical spots. $160 million, 5 years.
7. Pete Alonso: He's tough and strong and has performed well in the postseason. He's a beloved native player, so the incumbent Mets are the obvious choice, but the Yankees and others are also interested. Part of the problem is that teams don't like to spend as much money on 1B as they used to. Matt Chapman's $151 million, six-year contract could serve as a reward. (And maybe Chapman's Giants will make sense eventually.) $152 million, six years.
8. Anthony Santander: He has a lot of power and is a great person in the clubhouse. Eight teams have already participated, including one that will give Soto first shot. $100 million, 5 years.
9. Jack Flaherty: Fried's high school teammates ignored what was said to be a back problem when he started against the Mets and Yankees. He took a big step this year to get back into shape from the 2019-21 season. $80 million, 4 years.
10. Sean Manaea: He declined a qualifying offer and will cash in after a great year and big second half at Queen's. But he loves New York and is in talks with the Mets. The Orioles (and others) were also fans. $72 million, 4 years.
11. Yusei Kikuchi: After a slow start in Toronto, a huge second half in Houston is causing a huge market. The Astros are trying, but it seems likely he will end up elsewhere. $68 million, 4 years.
12. Teoscar Hernandez: He made it clear during his impressive run in the postseason that he wanted to return to Los Angeles. (Who wouldn't?) His one-year deal worked out, and his status improved significantly. $60 million, 3 years.
13. Christian Walker: The Diamondbacks definitely want him back. Although he didn't achieve great results, he is an outstanding all-around player. $60 million, 3 years.
14. Tanner Scott: His popularity at the trade deadline was an indication of what kind of market he should be. It would make sense for any big market team to acquire this top closer. $54 million, 4 years.
15. Luis Severino: The Mets made the right decision in extending his qualifying offer, but it seems likely he will decline it. A huge plus for any clubhouse. $48 million, 3 years.
16. Nate Eovaldi: The longtime starter is beloved in every clubhouse he calls home. The Braves and current Rangers are also among the interested parties. $40 million, 2 years.
17. Walker Buehler: The Dodgers make no mistake, but did they do him a favor by not giving him a qualifying offer and therefore no draft pick compensation to the team that signed him? They considered it, but with so many great starters returning they could be aiming even higher than this World Series hero. $40 million, 2 years.
18. Tyler O'Neal. There's another guy who left St. Louis and had a really great year in Boston and improved his standing. $39 million, 3 years.
19. Jeff Hoffman. The Mets hit the Phillies' relievers, but hardly anyone else. He certainly has the ability to close. $36 million, 3 years.
20. Nick Pivetta: There is a solid market for him, and he could be signed quickly after Boston makes a qualifying offer. $34 million, 2 years.
21. Carlos Estevez: The guy who threw 160 mph out of the Phillies' bullpen was also beaten by the Queens team (Francisco Lindor, anyway). $33 million, 3 years.
22. Gleyber Torres: In fact, we were in pretty good shape from the second half onwards. He may end up doing a “pillow sale” (a one-year reset), but perhaps two years is a good compromise. The Giants, Blue Jays, Mariners and Royals are among the teams that could work. $32 million, 2 years.
23. Clay Holmes: He looked very good when he moved away from the closer role. I'm a little unlucky this year. $30 million, 3 years.
24. Kirby Yates: It was really great out of the Rangers bullpen. Age (38 at the start of next season) is the only negative. $28 million, 2 years.
25. Jurickson Profar: We need the Padres to figure out a way to keep him after his big year. $26 million, 2 years.
26. Joc Pederson: His October record plays out as well as his great season in Arizona. $22 million, 2 years.
27. Nick Martinez: The right-handed starter appears likely to receive a qualifying offer from the Reds. $21.05 million, 1 year.
28. Frankie Montas. He hasn't reached his full potential and has had an up-and-down season with the Reds. $22 million, 2 years.
29. Jose Quintana: He showed a lot of his old self in the second half. $22 million, 2 years.
30. Shane Bieber: It makes sense for the Guardians to keep the former Cy Young Award winner. $20 million, 2 years.
31. Matthew Boyd: He turned his career around in Cleveland. $20 million, 2 years.
32. Kim Ha-sung: The Padres' great midfield defender is said to be highly sought after on the market. The Giants and Dodgers are among many examples that make sense. $20 million, 2 years.
33. Kyle Higashioka: It doesn't hurt that the Padres will be significantly improved in October. $16 million, 2 years.
34. Tommy Kahnle: It's going to be a great year, except for those three hitters against LA. $16 million, 2 years.
35. Paul Goldschmidt: If he has one or two more good years, he's a Hall candidate. $13 million, 1 year.
36. Max Scherzer: He doesn't need money, but he certainly has the desire. $12 million, 1 year.
37. Justin Verlander: He hasn't thrown much this season, but he has to match Scherzer's performance. $12 million, 1 year,
38. Alex Verdugo: Well, I know it's not Boston. $12 million, 1 year.
39. Michael Conforto: The Giants had a strong season, but could benefit from a one-year deal. $11 million, 1 year.
40. David Robertson: It feels like he'll keep pitching forever. $10 million, 1 year.
