Former President Trump currently leads in all seven states, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP)'s average battleground state poll.
And by “all seven,” we mean seven states that are generally believed to still have elections to determine who will be the next president: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It means that.
If I remember correctly, this is the first time either candidate has led in all seven.
On Thursday afternoon, Wisconsin moved to Trump's camp, making it the seventh and final state to hold office.
If the election were held today and the RCP poll average was high, Trump would defeat incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris by a near landslide, 312-226.
What to watch: Trump's average RCP lead is thinner than thin:
- Michigan: +0.9
- Nevada: +0.5
- Pennsylvania: +0.5
- Wisconsin: +0.1
- Arizona: +1.1
- Georgia: 0.9
- North Carolina: 1.0
Nevertheless, it's the averages as well as the trends that matter, and at the moment everything that matters is moving towards Mr. Trump. This trend is painfully slow, but it cannot be ignored. Just two weeks ago, Harris guided On average in battleground states. That lead was erased by an impressive debate performance by President Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, who defeated Harris' running mate, Tim Walz. Trump's newfound campaign discipline. And Kamala Harris remains evasive, awkward, and lacking in stature and confidence, even in the friendliest of media environments.
Bottom line: Kamala Harris is a terrible retail activist. She also made the fatal mistake of choosing Minnesota Governor Walz as her running mate instead of the popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, who she is sure to win. did. If she had chosen Shapiro, who was also smarter and less eccentric than Waltz, we probably would have seen a completely different breed. But Shapiro is Jewish, and Kamala's base hates Jews.
Even more bizarrely, Harris seems to suffer from Hillary Clinton syndrome. With 19 days remaining, Kamala, like Hillary, has an oddly light campaign schedule.
Nationwide, it is shrinking. race. In the last five polls, Trump leads by two votes, Harris leads by two votes, and there is only one tie.
If the polls are to be believed, this is a race that President Trump will lose. If you think today's polls are even half as bad at underestimating Trump's votes compared to 2016 and 2020, this is a landslide defeat for Trump.
The bad news for Kamala is that there is nothing on the election schedule that would constitute a turning point. There are no big announcements, no debates, no conventions…events can always shake things up. A lot can happen in 19 days. But if Trump remains disciplined, Harris will be powerless to change the dynamics of a losing campaign.
Finally, these polls don't even include her disastrous interview on Fox News Wednesday night. It's hard to imagine that independents will be charmed by the arrogance and prickly evasiveness she displayed in her only challenging interview.
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