A recent study revealed that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) could potentially lead to over 14 million additional deaths globally by 2030. This finding was released just hours before Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the agency’s official closure as part of efforts initiated by President Trump.
The report highlights that many of these fatalities could occur in African nations like Nigeria and Uganda, primarily due to reduced funding for maternal and child health initiatives, as well as surveillance for epidemics and emerging diseases.
Researchers noted that disruptions in malaria supply chains contributed to an additional 107,000 deaths in just one year in these countries alone.
The impending closure of USAID would also mean the withdrawal of funds from NGOs, including the United Nations World Food Program. This has already led to the shutdown of offices in South Africa, endangering 27 million people amid the worst drought in decades, as stated in the study.
Former Presidents Obama and Bush have publicly criticized the Trump administration regarding the shutdown of USAID, warning that it could diminish America’s role in the fight against HIV and AIDS.
“Ending USAID is a tragedy, as it is central to some of the most vital work being done globally,” Obama remarked in a recent statement.
In defense of the closure, Rubio claimed on Tuesday that the agency has often failed to meet its objectives. He wrote in a blog post: “Development goals rarely reach fruition, instability has worsened, and anti-American sentiment has grown. This era, that the government had not sanctioned, is now over.”
A survey published on Monday suggested that initiatives supported by USAID could prevent more than 91 million deaths across all demographics, including 30 million among children.
Rubio indicated that high levels of USAID funding correlate with a significant reduction in mortality rates — about 15% across all age groups, 65% in HIV/AIDS cases, 51% from malaria, and 50% from neglected tropical diseases.
In 2022, USAID accounted for over half of the nutritional and agricultural interventions as well as food distribution efforts.
According to the authors of the study, “The influence of USAID on health and mortality outcomes extends beyond just direct funding to health programs.” They emphasized that support for interventions aimed at poverty alleviation, education, and water sanitation have positively impacted health outcomes and community welfare as a whole. They further noted that poverty alleviation efforts have demonstrated significant decreases in mortality rates for both adults and children.
This study was backed by funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, the British Medical Research Council, and the EU Horizon Europe.
