Power supplies in the US might face instability during the summer, particularly if energy consumption rises and solar and wind generation struggles to keep up, according to a reliability report released on Wednesday.
The North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) indicated in its Summer Reliability Assessment that if solar and wind fail to fulfill energy demands, four major grid systems spanning about 37 states could experience blackouts this summer. NERC has labeled the situation as a “risking in risk,” meaning backup power levels in areas designed to handle grid emergencies could plummet during high-demand periods, like heat waves.
“The findings reflect a mixed outlook across various areas, yet the grid remains under strain,” remarked John Moura, NERC’s Director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis, in a conversation with Politico’s E&E News. “This underscores the need for thoughtful planning, timely infrastructure investment, and continuous vigilance throughout the season.”
According to the report, while solar power and some battery resources are expected to help manage growing energy demands, ongoing generator retirements will create added complexity and limitations. This situation could heighten the potential for blackouts, especially as energy demand increases faster than supply. Some have predicted that without adequate supply, we might be looking at rolling blackouts in certain areas.
In response to these concerns, President Donald Trump declared a national energy emergency upon returning to the White House, emphasizing the importance of bolstering the nation’s energy infrastructure for security. Additionally, his administration is taking legal steps to counter state actions that may hinder his energy policies.
NERC identifies grid systems like the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and Texas’ Electric Reliability Council (ERCOT) as particularly vulnerable. The report suggests that, although these areas should theoretically have sufficient resources for normal summer conditions, various factors like low wind and solar output and extreme weather events might lead to power shortages.
The performance of renewable sources such as wind and solar will play a vital role in determining if operators will need to implement operational measures to mitigate risks. NERC noted that increased reliance on these resources, without a corresponding growth in conventional energy sources like gas, coal, and nuclear, heightens the risks of power deficits.
Despite challenges, regions like Texas and California have seen improvements, thanks in part to the recent incorporation of battery energy storage systems that help manage energy supply fluctuations. However, the current growth in energy demand coupled with intermittent renewable output could create emergency conditions, particularly during evening hours when solar generation wanes but demand remains high.
The risk of power shortages is further compounded in areas like SPP, where, as the report highlights, extreme regional weather events can lead to high demand and generator outages, leaving grid operators with insufficient resources to respond appropriately.
The Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) serves six states and parts of New York, but it has seen a decline in reserve capacity and may need to rely heavily on neighboring grids during difficult summer conditions.
NERC’s forecasts for 2024, along with various analyses, suggest an increasing likelihood of rolling blackouts in the coming years. The combination of stringent environmental regulations and the push for renewables might be stalling the growth of the US energy supply, which several experts warn could lead to future shortages.
As of now, NERC, MISO, ERCOT, NPCC, and SPP have not commented on these findings.
