Rep. Mike Lawler appears to have a stronger chance than Rep. Elise Stefanik in the upcoming gubernatorial race against incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, according to a new poll.
The survey conducted by Brock McClary of Harper Polling indicates that Lawler is favorably positioned among moderate voters compared to Stefanik, as both Republicans prepare to compete for the governorship in 2026.
Initially, Hochul is leading Lawler 48%-41%. However, when respondents were informed of the candidates’ records, the gap narrowed significantly to 44% for Hochul and 43.4% for Lawler.
Conversely, Hochul leads Stefanik by a more substantial margin of 50.1%-38.8% initially and 46%-42.6% after participants were made aware of the candidates’ backgrounds.
Lawler has a notable advantage in downstate regions, showing a 20-point lead on Long Island. Meanwhile, Hochul’s support there is just 15% above baseline. This trend continues as polls reveal that Stefanik holds a 51%-36% lead over Hochul on Long Island, while Lawler’s lead stands at 55%-35%.
In the Hudson Valley, Hochul is ahead of Stefanik by 13 points, while Lawler trails Hochul by 4 points. The polling shows both Lawler and Stefanik struggling overall, lagging behind Hochul at 40%-53% and 44%-49% respectively.
Interestingly, the data suggests that Lawler competes as strongly as Stefanik in his own district. In Albany, North Country, and Central New York, Stefanik has a slight edge over Hochul at 49%-48%, while Lawler also leads Hochul 48%-47% in the same area.
In western New York’s Buffalo region, Stefanik has a narrow margin of 45%-43% over Hochul, whereas Lawler leads Hochul by 3 points at 47%-44%.
Hochul performs significantly better in New York City, carrying a 41-point advantage over Stefanik and a 35-point lead over Lawler.
Moderates are identified as a crucial voting bloc for winning a statewide election in New York, making up 51% of Democrats, 21% of Republicans, and 28% independents in the survey. Lawler holds a 10-point advantage among moderate voters compared to Stefanik.
However, Stefanik has a greater name recognition factor, leading Lawler by 20 points. McClary noted that the investigation didn’t specify which campaign was involved in the polling.
Importantly, the poll did not declare a potential winner in a hypothetical GOP primary between the two representatives. Past surveys have positioned Stefanik closely to former President Trump, which could be advantageous in the GOP primaries.
McClary emphasized that Hochul faces vulnerabilities, even in a predominantly Democratic state like New York. Current approval ratings for Hochul indicate 59% approval against 38% disapproval, a rating similar to that of President Trump.
Only 29% of voters want Hochul to continue her campaign, preferring alternatives instead. The pollster remarked that Hochul’s unpopularity is notable for an incumbent.
This positions either Lawler or Stefanik as formidable challengers to Hochul. In the 2022 race, Hochul won against Republican candidate Lee Zeldin by 6 points in a competitive election.
The Harper Polling survey included responses from 600 voters from May 7th to 9th, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
In the wake of these results, Stefanik’s camp has expressed skepticism regarding the poll’s accuracy. A senior advisor criticized the focus on upstate voting numbers, suggesting that Stefanik’s connection to Trump could be a strength rather than a weakness with moderates.
They argue that winning in New York requires engaging Trump’s base while also appealing to independent and Democratic voters—something they believe Stefanik can achieve.
Lawler’s team did not provide comments on this matter. Meanwhile, both representatives are contemplating their candidacies for governor, with Lawler also considering reelection for his House seat in Lower Hudson Valley.
