Republican Maryland Senate candidate Larry Hogan is neck and neck with his Democratic rival in a new poll, raising hopes of an upset victory for the GOP as other Republican candidates in the Senate race continue to tighten.
Hogan was tied with Prince George's County Mayor Angela Alsobrooks, who each received 46%. Shocking AARP poll findsThe remaining 8% of respondents were undecided.
“I've been clear from the beginning that we are behind in this race,” Hogan said in a statement about the poll. “People have always counted on us, and in this heavily Democratic state, at a time of unprecedented turmoil in American politics, this is an uphill battle and a daunting climb.”
In contrast, the poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris edging out former President Donald Trump in Maryland by a landslide 59% to 29% of the vote.
The Old Line State hasn't had a Republican in the Senate since 1987, but President Biden won it by about 33 percentage points in 2020. Only one Republican is in the eight-member senate, Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.).
Despite Maryland's liberal leanings, Hogan is widely seen as a formidable Republican candidate because of his moderate positions, family traditions and record of statewide victories that have made him a popular governor.
In 2018, a year in which Democrats swept national elections, Hogan was re-elected as Maryland's governor by about 12 percentage points.
Both Hogan and Alsobrooks are vying for the Maryland seat soon to be vacated by incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin. Alsobrooks won a tough primary against Rep. David Trone in May.
If Alsobrooks wins, she will become Maryland's first black senator and the state's second woman to serve in the senate, joining Barbara Mikulski.
Republicans face a favorable position to retake the Senate, with just 11 seats to defend compared to the 23 held by Democrats and their three independents.
But polls generally show the races are close, and some of the toughest contests are among Democratic incumbents, making those seats even tougher to win back.
Republicans are also eyeing races in Arizona, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin as possible wins.
Among them, Cook Political Report Michigan, Montana and Ohio are rated as close races, West Virginia is considered a Republican favorite in its Senate race, and Maryland is rated a “Democrat favorite” by Election Handicapper.
Democrats currently control the Senate 51-49. If the two candidates cannot agree on a spot, the winner of the vice presidential election will have the right to vote in a runoff election.
During his tenure as governor, Hogan developed a reputation for his centrist stance and became one of his party's fiercest critics of Trump, who has remained largely silent about the campaign.
Hogan took a pro-abortion rights stance during his Senate campaign, and in his first commercial he called for nationwide abortion rights legislation at a time when Republicans are struggling to politicize the burden of abortion.
He has also sought to position himself as an outsider, stressing that Republicans should not take his vote for granted if he wins the Senate.
The nonpartisan AARP poll was conducted Aug. 14-20 among 1,258 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by the Republican-leaning Fabrizio Ward and Democratic-leaning Impact Research.
