Republicans are now the favorites to retake the Senate majority for the first time in four years after a widely trusted analysis tipped key races in favor of Republican candidates on Thursday.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report Montana Contest Review The “Republican leaning” race is between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and challenger Tim Sheehy.
The races for the other two Democratic-held seats in Ohio and Michigan were considered close.
If Republicans win all three districts, they would enter the 119th Congress with 53 senators, providing an important check on Democrats if Kamala Harris wins the White House and the party retakes the House of Representatives.
“After almost 18 years in Washington, Montanans are tired of a duplicitous man who voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in Washington while posing as a moderate in Montana,” Maggie Abboud, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement.
The announcement came shortly after a poll released last week showed Tester, who is seeking a fourth term, trailing Sheehy by six percentage points, 51% to 45%, in a head-to-head race.
When the AARP survey included third-party candidates, Tester's approval rating fell to 41 percent, eight points behind Sheehy.
Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Republicans are expected to have at least 50 senators in the next Congress, and Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is considered the favorite to replace retiring independent Joe Manchin.
Tester, 68, has been re-elected twice despite Montana receiving double-digit votes for Republican candidates in three consecutive presidential elections.
Other Senate races this year are also leaning in Republican favor.
The Cook Political Report has changed its rating of the March election race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Republican candidate Bernie Moreno to “close.”
The race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Michigan Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has been considered a “50-50” contest by polling groups since July.
Both Tester and Brown have distanced themselves from Vice President Kamala Harris, who is running for reelection, and declined to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month.
Slotkin attended and delivered a patriotic address to the delegates, highlighting her past experience working as a CIA officer and Department of Defense official in the Obama administration before being elected to Congress in 2018.
Tester and Brown had called on Biden to abandon his 2024 reelection bid before the 81-year-old retires on July 21.
In other Senate races, Republicans Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are up for re-election on November 5, along with other notable colleagues Josh Hawley of Missouri, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and John Barrasso of Wyoming.
Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Jacky Rosen of Nevada and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are all expected to retain their battleground state seats, while Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona is expected to edge out Republican Kali Lake in the battle for departing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat.
If Republicans retake the Senate, they will need to choose new leadership after Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced he will step down after nearly two decades in the Senate after the general election.
If Democrats remain in power, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has promised to pass an aggressive policy agenda and even potentially do away with the filibuster, a procedural rule that requires 60 votes to end debate on most bills.
Neither the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee nor Tester's campaign immediately responded to requests for comment.
