Before the midterm elections, our data team kept returning to one question: did the electorate look enough like the 2024 electorate for Republicans to win? The polls were predicting a Democratic blowout, but the turnout numbers offered some reason for hope. In a few states, participation was decent; in others, it was remarkably strong. Nowhere did it collapse. We thought our voters were showing up.
I asked the sharpest data analyst I know whether that meant Republicans might surprise everyone. He said no. We could outperform the polls, he thought, but the numbers showed that many people who voted for Trump and Vance in 2024 were angry and considering a vote for Democrats. Our voters might turn out, he warned, without voting for us.
That turned out to be a pretty accurate read. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for instance, the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democratic, only a couple of points less Republican than in 2024. There were places where we could have done more to boost turnout, of course. But turnout wasn’t the central problem. A significant number of 2024 Trump-Vance voters chose Democrats in 2026.
There will be plenty of debate about why. A pollster I respect believes our economic message in the final stretch wasn’t strong enough to persuade voters. I’m sure that played a part.
Still, the main reason for the loss is not hard to see.
Another pollster, among the brightest people I know in politics, told me the day before the election that we would lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I was already uneasy about Tuesday, but that forecast surprised me. His polling found many Trump voters from 2024 were angry and planned to vote Democratic. He asked those who had left the Republican side what might bring them back. Nearly all of their answers fell into four categories:
- Bring the war in Iran to an end.
- Make the cost of living and inflation a priority.
- Put America and Americans first.
- Reconsider the country’s relationship with Israel.
Those priorities help explain why some of our voters went to the polls and backed Democrats, according to a pollster whose forecast proved accurate. The day before the election, plenty of people criticized Rachel Campos-Duffy for urging a diplomatic solution to the Iran war. In hindsight, her political advice looks sound. She’s a good person, too.
In the months ahead, expect a lot of attempts to shift the blame. Some establishment politicians will say the answer is amnesty for undocumented immigrants. I’m open to changing how immigration laws are enforced—for example, by putting more focus on businesses that hire people who are here illegally. But anyone claiming amnesty will solve our electoral problems is misleading you.
The Iran war is why we lost the midterms. The president said as much last night.
You can argue that the war was worth the cost, including losing control of the Senate for the next six years. At least that would be an honest argument. But we need to begin any serious discussion about what comes next by acknowledging why we lost.
I’m still hopeful about the country. To those who are angry and want to tell us, “I told you so”: you’re right. You did. Now put that energy toward electing Republicans who share your priorities and your outlook. And to everyone who is simply furious about the result, well, you have reason to be.
Let’s use that anger to get back to the work of saving the country.
