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Republicans stare down massive deficits to extend Trump tax cuts

Republican members between debt and tax coat are some new ways to consider the costs of legislative agenda because the opinions on the budget reduction are set as early movement of tax bills. I am considering.

Since it is known as a work from the current policy base line, the non -standard accounting method enables Republicans to wipe out nearly $ 5 trillion debt under rugs.

The baseline uses the cost of extending the tax reduction and expiration of employment in 2017 from the budget score of the invoice, but includes the potential advantages of updating those provisions. Doing so may generate a much smaller number in which the tax law is added to the deficit.

“That's a $ 5 trillion question,” said Rochit Kumar, a PWC tax expert and many years of Capitol Hill staff, told the reporters in January, in a Republican agenda one or two -building scenario. He stated that the policy -based line method could be used.

Jane Gravel, a senior professional of the non -party council research service (CRS), said that using the current policy -based line is a major move.

“It's clearly a big deal,” Grabell told the hill. “Because there is a big problem with debt, everything related to debt is a big deal.”

Despite President Trump's preference for “one big and beautiful bill” to move his agenda, the Republican members may not reach the top line budget number last month in Florida, and then choose the two. Maybe. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA.) He wants to vote for his number by the end of February.

If the CBO asks the Congress to get the cost of the current policy baseline, the institution will do it and a score based on the major accounting method known as the “current law base line”. We will provide you.

The current law base line believes that the law cuts in Trump in 2017 are written in the law, and considers the expiration of the provisions, such as reducing the personal income tax rate.

The reduction in 2017 is temporarily temporarily in order to meet the requirements of the budget settlement process, which is a legal workaround that the Senate avoids the need of 60 votes and aims to use it again. I did it.

In the end, it is a hypothetical difference, but it has a real result in the deficit, expanding to a new high after pandemic, which is a major concern for many Republican members. Currently, US debt stocks are about $ 36 trillion, that is, 120 % of the annual general production.

Every year, the budget deficit was $ 1.83 trillion in 2024. The government has collected $ 4.92 trillion, spending $ 6.75 trillions on health, retirement insurance, defense, and debt interest.

CBO hopes that the shortage will increase over the year $ 2.7 trillion by 2035The Republican Party does not include the tax reduction extension required. According to the CBO estimation, the US debt share will reach $ 59.3 trillion by 2035.

Alex MURESIANU, an advanced policy analyst of Tax Foundation, calls the distinction between laws and policies.

“The current policy baseline, assuming the current policy baseline, assuming that these tax reductions are exposed to a specific method, assuming that they are expanded in a specific way, the current policy base line is. It gets worse.

It is not unusual for a member of the Diet to provide accounting predictions to members based on different assumptions from the current law.

For example, CBO has released A Cost estimate In November 2021, the Republican member sought to fix it to the construction of the Biden administration. Assume that the policy has become permanentNot temporary. The estimated values ​​were several digits, jumping from $ 367 billion to $ 3 trillion.

“Currently, they use the current law baseline, stating that all of these provisions will expire in 2026, which will cost a profit cost to recover them,” Gravelle. Tell Hill.

Kumar pointed out that the Democratic Party had advanced its own agenda in the past using policy -based line accounting forecasts.

“Is the parliament officially explained the cost to extend the expired clause? [is] Permanent? “He said.

“This is a difficult question to answer,” Kumar added.

Republican leadership is fully aware of the issues above, trying to reduce taxes and do not explode the deficit.

“For example, I don't want to make a hole in the deficit by extending the tax cut in the Trump era,” said Johnson in Fox News on Monday. “But we are definitely going to expand it. We have to find these savings.”

Johnson said last week that the budget was reduced by the Republican Party, but the lowest party seemed to be too low for the party's deficit Hawks. Ralph Norman (RS.C.), a member of a conservative free Caucas, told Hill that a cut worth $ 500 billion was “non -starter.”

Several abnormal activities in the last few months in the bond market, which are sensitive to deficit, may be more concerned about national debt. The federal preparation system has significantly reduced short -term interest rates in the fall, indicating that long -term interest rates in the bond market have risen and investors want more money. Analyst explains that this difference is unusual.

Following the rating agency Fitch, the Democratic Party and the Republican members focused on the U.S. to AAA+from AAA+in 2023. Republican members need to raise their debt maximum this year.

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