Health Insurance Uncertainty in Minnesota
BYRON, Minn. — Tracy and Dave Fogelson are facing the possibility of being without health insurance next year.
The couple has been purchasing their insurance through MNsure, Minnesota’s individual health insurance marketplace, ever since Dave lost his job. He is currently working part-time while Tracy is a self-employed real estate agent. They’re just a few years away from being eligible for Medicare.
At the moment, they are paying nearly $400 a month for their health insurance premiums. However, this same plan is projected to spike to about $2,000 a month in 2026, primarily because the enhanced advance premium tax credit— which helps those earning above 400% of the federal poverty guidelines—is set to expire.
“That amount could probably cover a decent rent for a home,” Tracy remarked.
The Fogelsons are not in this boat alone.
During a recent Minnesota Senate subcommittee hearing, Grace Arnold, Secretary of the Minnesota Department of Commerce, stated that with the impending expiration of the tax credit, “around 90,000 Minnesotans could see an average increase of about $2,000 annually.”
Tracy provided written testimony for the hearing. Having survived cancer for 13 years, she shared, “I want to continue to fight cancer, but I need health insurance to do that.”
Beyond the tax credit issue, individual health insurance premiums in Minnesota are expected to rise by an average of 21.5%. Arnold mentioned that part of this increase is attributed to insurance companies predicting that some younger, healthier adults may opt out of coverage.
“This means healthier individuals will leave the risk pool while still paying premiums but without access to care,” Mitch Anderson, an independent health insurance advisor at Prime Time Health Advisors in Rochester, explained. “Ultimately, this could place a heavier burden on insurers.”
Tracy expressed that eliminating their health insurance in 2026 seems likely for them. She said, “We could always quit our jobs and rely on government assistance, but that’s never been our approach. We believe in taking responsibility for our own well-being. Yet, we might have to make choices we wouldn’t usually consider.”
Jeff and Julie Williams, another couple from Rochester, are also preparing to adjust their plans. They retired early and utilize the MNsure Marketplace for their health insurance. Their current plan will see a $635 increase in premiums next year, prior to any tax credits.
“For a comparable policy with slightly less advantageous deductibles, it costs nearly $700 more—about 35%,” Jeff noted.
As they qualify for enhanced tax credits now, Jeff plans to lower his income next year, bringing it below the 400% FPG threshold to access the standard premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act.
“Many people I know are retiring in their late 50s or early 60s and navigating the ACA by keeping their incomes low,” he added.
The affordability of health insurance is currently a significant factor in the ongoing federal government shutdown, which began on October 1. The U.S. Senate needs 60 votes to pass most legislation.
Meanwhile, as negotiations continue, Democrats are holding out for an expansion and continuation of tax credits.
Starting November 1, roughly 167,000 Minnesotans who purchase health insurance through MNsure can begin enrolling for their 2026 plans. A preview of this can be found on their site.
