An I&I/TIPP poll released Monday found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden among independents.
overall investigation Indicated Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were virtually evenly matched in a match that included third-party candidates, with Mr. Biden’s approval rating at 39% and Mr. Trump’s approval rating at 38%. Another 12% chose independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., followed by independent candidate Cornel West with 1% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 1%.
The survey also found that while independents support Trump over Biden by a 5-point margin in a head-to-head race, 15% remain unsure. Trump’s lead among independents widens only when third-party candidates are included, giving Biden an 8-point lead, 33% to 25%. . RFK Jr. followed with 18%, followed by West and Stein with 2% each.
TIPP Insights notes that this is important because “in the last election, independents supported Biden by 54% compared to Trump’s 41%.”
“As the I&I/TIPP data shows, by all accounts, that has reversed this time,” the study says, noting that Trump gained in other demographics as well.
For example, African Americans voted 87% for Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. However, in 2024, the situation has changed dramatically. Fifty-nine percent of black voters said they supported Mr. Biden, down 28 percentage points from four years ago, while 15% said they supported Mr. Trump, an increase of 3 percentage points. In total, that’s a 31 point swing.
Among Hispanics, Biden disapproved of Trump in 2020, 65% to 32%. In this month’s I&I/TIPP poll, support among Hispanics stood at 47% for Biden, 26% for Trump, and 13% for Kennedy.
The survey also asked respondents who they thought would win the election, regardless of their personal political preferences. Overall, more people believe Trump will win than Biden, 37% to 34% for Biden.
37% expect Trump to win
34% expect Biden to win15% say it’s too close to call pic.twitter.com/FnWtnFQ8wZ
— Polling USA (@USA_Polling) May 6, 2024
The survey was conducted from May 1 to May 3, 2024 with 1,264 respondents. The error is ± 2.8%.
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Margo Martin from Storyful
