Potential Leaders in Iran’s Future
Experts suggest that if the Iranian regime collapses after decades of authoritarian governance, figures like the exiled prince and a former president could step into power.
Reza Pahlavi, the ex-crown prince who fled to the U.S. just before the 1979 revolution ended his family’s rule, has reemerged as a significant name in this conversation. Now 65 and residing in Maryland, he has established connections with officials in Washington and members of the Iranian community abroad. According to former CIA officer Royel Mark Gerecht, “Mr. Pahlavi is a complex figure,” and it’s noted that he has garnered support within Iran.
As the influence of the Islamic Republic wanes, nostalgia for Pahlavi’s era seems to be on the rise. His recent message encouraging protests on January 8 and 9 gained 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Instagram.
The son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled from 1941 to 1979, recently published an op-ed emphasizing a “transition to democracy” rather than simply restoring the monarchy. “I’ve come forward to lead, not as a ruler-in-waiting, but as a steward of the nation’s transition to democracy,” he stated. While some protestors are calling for his return, others question his ability to rally support after so much time away.
Another name mentioned is former President Hassan Rouhani. He held office from 2013 to 2021 and was notable for being the first Iranian leader to communicate directly with a U.S. president when he spoke with Barack Obama in 2013. Rouhani has recently taken a more vocal stance on encouraging dialogue with Western nations.
Analyst Ali Reza Nurizadeh has pointed out that Rouhani is currently facing “intense scrutiny” by the regime, with his communications being monitored closely.
Potential leaders could also include Seyyed Hossein Mousabian, who served as Iran’s ambassador to Germany and was involved in nuclear negotiations in the early 2000s. Andrew Apostolou from the British-Israel Communications and Research Center describes him as someone with a pronounced “survival instinct” within the landscape of Iranian politics.
Ultimately, the next leader may arise from Iran’s various security agencies. According to Iranian scholar Alireza Nader, the outcome hinges on the balance of power on the ground. “As long as the regime remains united, many people will be killed before that happens,” he noted, underscoring the gravity of the situation.
