Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s name is likely to remain on the ballot in key states in November, potentially posing an unintentional threat to former President Trump, even as independent candidates have suspended their campaigns and endorsed him.
Kennedy said he would work to have himself removed from the ballot in battleground states that will decide the winner of the White House, but for now, officials said he will show up as the candidate in Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina when voters head to the polls.
Polls have shown that Kennedy was drawing support away from Trump even before he dropped out of the race, raising the possibility that his presence in certain states could influence the election outcome, even in those where he has dropped out.
“If a candidate is on the ballot, somebody is going to vote for them,” said Christopher Thrasher, a voting access consultant who analyzes third-party campaigns. “Both sides performed similarly in the primaries this year. No one knows at this point how many votes they're going to get.”
Republicans are happy that Kennedy is backing Trump. Ahead of the endorsement deal, many wanted to be sure that Kennedy would help Trump defeat Vice President Harris, not the other way around. Kennedy's decision to stay out of battleground states and remain on the ballot in solidly Democratic states was an attempt to demonstrate loyalty to Trump and assert rebellion against the Democratic Party.
Advisers to Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Trump see his decision as a win-win: It effectively keeps Mr. Kennedy on the ballot in a Democratic stronghold, leaving open the possibility that some voters who don't want the Harris-Waltz pairing could still vote for him, upsetting liberals.
Kennedy's supporters say he wants to put Democrats on the defensive and force them to spend more money in safe Democratic states – money that would otherwise be spent in battleground states.
“He's now going to hit back at the Democrats and get them to spend money in states that the Democrats didn't count, like New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois and Washington,” a source familiar with Kennedy's voting strategy told The Hill, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a plan that has not yet been made public.
Trump “literally has no intention of spending any money on this,” the source said, “and it will put Democrats in a bind and force them to spend extra money.”
“The Trump campaign has been very vigilant in its efforts to get ahead of the Democratic presidential nominee, and we are pleased to see that he has been able to win the nomination for the Democratic nomination,” the spokesman said.
The environmental lawyer's goal is to get his name on as many ballots as possible across the country, but each state varies widely, and now reversing his efforts brings its own challenges. In the Midwest, for example, where Trump and Harris have waged fierce ground campaigns, Kennedy's candidacy could complicate the dynamics of the two-way race.
“Wisconsin and Michigan have clear laws that prohibit candidates from withdrawing,” Thrasher said.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office said state law does not allow closer candidates to withdraw from the race. Kennedy is expected to run as the Natural Law Party's candidate in the state.
In Wisconsin, the state's elections board voted overwhelmingly Tuesday to say Kennedy cannot be removed because he is still alive, with the only exception to removal being death.
Meanwhile, the North Carolina State Election Commission reportedly voted This week, he announced he would reject Kennedy's request to impeach him because absentee ballots had already been sent out.
“Regardless of the law, in practice the final deadline for candidate withdrawal is the day before military and overseas absentee ballots are mailed,” Thrasher added. “And like everything else, it can vary from state to state.”
Kennedy's supporters are preparing to call on his base to back Trump.
“Bobby is going to be telling his supporters in those states explicitly to vote MAGA,” said a second source close to the Kennedy campaign with knowledge of the internal planning.
While time is not necessarily on Kennedy's side, this is now a problem for Trump as well: Waiting until the end of the summer to effectively pull out will make it harder for him to comply with state rules that could affect him later, according to a second source.
“If the merger had happened sooner, it would have had more time to come off the ballot,” the source added.
The countdown to Election Day means plenty of tweaks, and Kennedy is expected to hold more press conferences articulating the benefits of voting for Trump Vance.
“He called Tucker [Carlson]”And he'll continue to appear on podcasts and in the media,” the second Kennedy supporter said.
Kennedy's team is also likely to “issue memos and recommendations” about the importance of backing Trump, the source added. “So far, Trump has shown that Bobby's influence is more than just lip service. A lot will happen in the next 70 days.”
Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger said the efforts may be necessary to “underscore the need” to give instructions to supporters, with Kennedy remaining on the ballot in several key places.
“This has happened before and it's not optimal, but it's not insurmountable,” she said. “As long as more voters support Trump than Harris, that's a win.”
Schlinger said Trump and Kennedy have in common that they are “outcasts from the status quo.” If Kennedy is “willing to travel and personally visit the neglected communities that feel left behind,” she said, “he'll have an empathetic audience that's willing to listen and be open-minded to what he has to say.”
Kennedy has been successful in removing himself from the ballot in several states that both sides consider to be surefire winners. A day after appearing on the ballot in Arizona, Kennedy requested that his name be removed before suspending his campaign activities in the state. The Arizona Secretary of State's office confirmed that his name had been withdrawn.
He was also allowed to withdraw his candidacy in Pennsylvania and Nevada, but a separate issue over Kennedy's residency meant he could not appear on the Georgia ballot while running as an independent.
Democrats are still closely watching Kennedy's performance, with strategist Matt Irwin saying a small handful of voters could make a difference. “Any time the polls are close, third parties have influence,” he said.
“If I were in either camp, my biggest concern would be that there would be a buildup of dissatisfaction with this pairing of candidates that would still make people want to hold their noses and protest,” he continued.
After President Biden decided not to run for a second term and Harris took over, polls began to consistently show Kennedy stealing votes from Trump, but other polls showed Harris still performing worse when she was included on the ticket.
Irwin pointed to the 2000 election in which Green Party candidate Ralph Nader allegedly stole votes from Democrat Al Gore, a dispute that ultimately ended up in the Supreme Court. He said Kennedy remaining in the race is just “one more way a similar situation could happen.”
Matthew Foster, a political science lecturer at American University, said the high name recognition of both candidates could make Kennedy appear merely as a protest vote in areas where he is still the nominee.
“These are people who probably weren't going to vote for whatever reason. [Trump or Harris]”Certainly there will be situations where a few people do that, but that's not what makes or breaks this cycle,” he said.
