Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse speaks at the 2022 Milken Institute Global Conference held in Beverly Hills, California, USA on May 4, 2022.
Mike Blake | Reuters
“I’ve been in this industry for a long time and I’ve seen these trends come and go,” Garlinghouse told CNBC. “I’m very optimistic. I think macro trends, big-picture things like ETFs are moving real institutional money for the first time.”
“That’s driving demand up, and you’re seeing demand go up and supply go down at the same time,” Garlinghouse said. “You don’t have to be an economics major to understand what happens when supply shrinks and demand grows.”
The first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on January 10th. These are traded on US stock exchanges and allow institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning the underlying asset.
Bitcoin halving is a technical event that occurs approximately every four years in Bitcoin’s history. This halves the total mining reward for Bitcoin miners, volunteers on the Bitcoin network who use high-powered computers to verify transactions and mint new tokens.
The last such event was held in 2020, with the next one scheduled for later this month.
“The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency industry…is easily predicted to double by the end of this year… [as it’s] It’s influenced by all these macro factors,” Garlinghouse said.
As of April 4, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was approximately $2.6 trillion. If the market were to double, the new cryptocurrency market capitalization would be $5.2 trillion.
Bitcoin is up over 140% in the past 12 months.
It hit an all-time high of over $73,000 on March 13, according to CoinGecko data. However, it has since fallen well below the $70,000 level.
The world’s digital currencies have become the primary tokens driving broader market interests.
Bitcoin accounts for approximately 49% of the total cryptocurrency market, with a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion as of April 1st.
Another factor that Garlinghouse sees pushing the crypto market to new highs is the potential for positive regulatory momentum in the US.
Since this is an election year, crypto industry hopefuls are optimistic that the next administration will focus on policy and be more accommodating to the industry.
The SEC, led by Chairman Gary Gensler, has been active in enforcing crypto companies, including Ripple itself.
The SEC has filed a securities lawsuit against Ripple for illegally selling the virtual currency XRP, which is closely related to Ripple, in an unregistered securities transaction. Ripple denies the allegations and is fighting the lawsuit.
“One of the things I would actually say in terms of macro tailwinds for the industry is I think it’s going to be more clear in the U.S.,” Garlinghouse said.
“The United States is still the largest economy in the world, but unfortunately one of the most hostile crypto markets. And I think that will start to change.”
Garlinghouse is not the only crypto bull to predict big gains in the crypto market this year.
Marshall Beard, chief operating officer of U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, recently told CNBC at a crypto conference in London that he expects the price of Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 in the second half of this year. He said he is doing so.
“Everything has already gone up quickly this year, a lot of activity, a lot of hiring, new regulations, ETFs, halvings, miners needing to exit,” Beard told CNBC.
“We’re going to see some wild swings until we reach an all-time high of $150,000,” Beard added. “It’s probably going to happen this year. I think it’s going to move very quickly… and the momentum, the supply shock, I think it’s going to move very quickly.”
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