Foreign policy analysts have indicated that the potential rise of a new prime minister in Japan should serve as a crucial reminder for America’s allies in the Indo-Pacific region, who have been somewhat sluggish in enhancing their military readiness.
Sanae Takaichi, appointed as the head of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and expected to become the country’s first female prime minister, has expressed an urgent commitment to bolster Japan’s military capabilities. This move comes amidst escalating concerns over China’s assertiveness in the region. Experts suggest that Takaichi’s election represents a critical juncture for Japan and neighboring nations like Taiwan and South Korea to step up their defenses against possible Chinese aggression.
“Mr. Xi has set a deadline,” former national security adviser Victoria Coates remarked, pointing to a 2027 preparedness timeline. She elaborated that it’s not only the Chinese military that needs to be ready but also Taiwan and its defenders.
Takaichi has also been vocal about her support for the abolition of Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, a post-World War II measure designed to curtail military buildup. With the shifting dynamics of international relations and the increasing threat posed by China, many feel this article’s intent has become outdated.
According to William Chow from the Hudson Institute, Takaichi’s upcoming leadership signals Japan’s serious approach to security, particularly with threats looming from China, North Korea, and Russia that impact various sectors—from military to energy and cybersecurity.
Additionally, Takaichi has been a proponent of Japan’s rearmament, guided by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who in 2014 altered Japan’s interpretation of Article 9 to allow for collective defense. Chow added that any security crisis affecting Japan would likely also involve U.S. forces.
U.S. defense officials have long expressed frustration over Japan’s military expenditure, urging it to significantly enhance defense funding in light of China’s rapid military growth.
“While there has been some improvement in Japan’s defense spending, it remains insufficient for the current strategic environment,” a U.S. defense official mentioned recently.
Yet, Japan faces substantial economic hurdles that limit its military appropriations. As of October, Japan’s national debt has outstripped its GDP, which has seen stagnation amid a declining population.
In response to U.S. expectations, Taiwan plans to increase its defense budget to $31.27 billion by 2026, aiming for more than 3% of its GDP. South Korea, similarly, has committed to an 8.2% rise in military spending following U.S. pressures. However, there’s skepticism around whether these increases will suffice given the looming 2027 deadline.
Both nations, much like Japan, are grappling with economic challenges, including declining birth rates and rising public debt, which could hinder rapid military expansion.
“We must act with urgency; it seems like time is running out,” Coates emphasized.
Although Takaichi has yet to officially assume the role of prime minister, her ascent appears almost certain, given the LDP’s strong position in Japan’s lower house. During her campaign, she expressed admiration for the late British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
“I aspire to become an Iron Lady,” she told a group of schoolchildren, as reported.
The Department of Defense did not provide any immediate comments on the matter.
