As the United States focuses on replenishing its missile reserves, it is simultaneously seeking to create new weaponry for its military inventory.
“We’re going to need all three levels of missiles. The economical variants, the higher-end systems like the Patriot, and possibly some hypersonics,” remarked Mark Cancian, a retired colonel from the U.S. Marines and senior advisor at the CSIS Defense and Security Department.
There’s a growing interest within the U.S. military toward hypersonic weapons, known for their ability to maneuver and operate at speeds five times that of sound.
“These hypersonic technologies are viewed as the cutting-edge system today, while traditional ballistic missiles have become somewhat outdated,” stated Cameron Tracy, a Senior Research Scholar at UC Berkeley.
The U.S. is reportedly trailing in the hypersonic arms race, particularly as nations like China and Russia advance their capabilities.
However, developing these advanced weapons could come with hefty expenses. According to estimates from the Government Accountability Office, each missile for the Army’s long-range hypersonic weapon, dubbed Dark Eagle, might cost upwards of $40 million. The Navy’s efforts to equip Zumwalt Destroyers with hypersonic missiles are projected to cost around $70 million per unit, factoring in the costs for necessary technology development and integration. The modernization initiative is also noted to be running two years late.
“In the long run, the Army believes that the costs for the long-range hypersonic weapon will decrease as they scale up production,” shared Xiaodon Liang, a Senior Policy Analyst focused on Nuclear Weapons Policy and Disarmament with the Arms Control Association.
By contrast, the price tags for other missile types are much lower: U.S. Navy Tomahawk missiles are approximately $2.6 million each, while the Army’s Patriot missiles are close to $4 million. Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) are priced around $1.6 million. To put it into perspective, the Navy could procure nearly 27 Tomahawks for the amount spent on a single hypersonic missile on a Zumwalt Destroyer, and the Army could get about 25 PrSMs for the cost of one Dark Eagle.
In recent years, the U.S. has invested in various programs that are beginning to reach fruition. “These are high-end weapons, and I believe the military is acquiring them for significant purposes,” Liang noted.
Hypersonic weapons can fly up to 20 times faster than conventional missiles, which significantly reduces an enemy’s response time—often estimated to be six times shorter. This speed not only aids in eluding enemy defense systems but is also crucial for executing strikes. A report from the Atlantic Council suggests that missions might require up to 75% fewer hypersonic weapons.
Defense startups are striving to lower the production costs of hypersonic weapons through more affordable missile options and expanded testing capabilities.
“The weapon itself is under $500,000, which is remarkably inexpensive for munitions,” stated Bryon Hargis, co-founder and CEO of Castelion. The Army and Navy are investing in Castelion’s Blackbeard hypersonic weapon, which the company claims is geared towards mass production.
“It’s about the advantages hypersonics can offer as a weapon, but it’s also a story about American manufacturing,” Hargis explained. “Our aim is to give America a middle deterrence layer by means of production.”
This year, Castelion started constructing what is projected to be the largest facility in the U.S. dedicated to hypersonic weapons production. This initiative, named Project Ranger, expects to manufacture thousands of Blackbeard weapons each year for various military contracts, including integrating these systems into the U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornet jets and the Army’s HIMARS, as well as deploying them on unmanned surface vessels.
“The benefit of a hypersonic system is its range, speed, and maneuverability, which enhances its survivability. This is crucial for deterrence since it’s tough to intercept,” Hargis added.
Generally, hypersonic weapons operate within Earth’s atmosphere, maintaining their maneuverability throughout flight to strike targets swiftly—within 15 to 30 minutes from distances of around 1,725 miles.
Concerns have been raised about potential misinterpretations regarding hypersonic launches. Liang noted that if the target is uncertain, like in the case of traditional ballistic missiles where trajectories can be calculated, there could be serious misinterpretations, such as considering an incoming strike as a decapitation attempt, which could lead to heightened tensions.
Developers have assured that discussions occur with other nations ahead of missile launches to clarify intended targets. Yet, there are lingering worries that the maneuverability of hypersonic weapons could lead to inaccuracies.
“Technologies generally improve over time with testing and operational experience, but significant physical limitations on the performance of these systems remain,” remarked Tracy.
Defense contractor Rocket Lab is collaborating with the military to enhance hypersonic missile capabilities by conducting more test launches.
“Our HASTE program enables low-cost, high-frequency hypersonic and missile defense testing,” said Brian Rogers, Vice President of Global Launch Services at Rocket Lab. “By doing so, we are looking at a more aggressive approach to demonstrate the technology’s capabilities.”
Rocket Lab’s HASTE vehicle, derived from the Electron rocket, facilitates flight tests that aid the government in advancing hypersonic and suborbital system technology developments. “Instead of being stuck in a lengthy analysis phase with rigorous, expensive testing campaigns, we’re planning 12 tests this year with each one presenting a manageable risk,” Rogers explained.
Although the U.S. military has yet to deploy a hypersonic weapon, there have been deliberations about using its Dark Eagle in the Middle East.
Liang expressed skepticism about the extensive use of hypersonic weapons. “It would genuinely surprise me if we deployed them, especially on a large scale, considering the limited number of missiles available and ongoing concerns about our ammunition stock.”
