Immediately after Riot by Donald Trump supporters at the Capitol on January 6, 2021the idea that Trump might become president for a second term was virtually unthinkable. But the conditions that would allow him to return to power have been in the making for decades, starting with policies first introduced by President Ronald Reagan.
After tear gas was spread and the Capitol was evacuated in January 2021, the FBI Largest federal investigation in U.S. history to arrest those responsible. Mr. Trump, who called on protesters to “fight like hell,” would later face this. federal indictment for his role in the chaos. Indeed, this would make a new presidential campaign look ridiculous.
So how on earth did Trump win?
Commentators were quick to criticize the Democrats' tenure. Has President Joe Biden turned his back on the working class? yes he did,But that doesn't explain why Almost all voting groups shifted For Mr. Trump, who became the first president to leave office after his first term since the Great Depression. less work He has been in the country longer than when he entered the country.
Some people claim that Biden Withdrew from the race too late. But even before he took office, he was trailing in opinion polls. A tragic debate scene. Kamala Harris' campaign Too “woke” Or that she couldn't identify what she would have done differently toward Biden. cause fatal damage. Still others will point out record inflation Other economic pressures.
These theories pile up, but none of them answer the real question here. How can a country where democratic values are so deeply ingrained in the national psyche elect a president who openly defies them?
The truth is that democratic capitalism has been steadily building towards a foreseeable crisis for the past 45 years, compounded by three mutually exclusive events that began during the Reagan administration: sluggish growth, rising inequality, and increasing polarization. In other words, it consists of tendencies that reinforce each other.
surely, Comparison of Trump and Reagan It's too much. But what is overlooked is how Reagan's policies created the conditions for a populist seizure of power. Reagan came to power during a period of the highest growth rates since the Industrial Revolution. inequality is on a downward trendAnd almost everyone was sharing the fruits of their progress.
However, the Reagan administration turned its back on the welfare model established by its predecessor; political economy theory and ideology of neoliberalism. Neoliberals rejected the idea that tax-funded government programs were the best way to improve lives. Rather, they believed that when markets thrive, everyone thrives. And if the government takes action, the market will prosper. stop getting in the way. The tax rate is cut dramatically For the wealthy, Rapid rise amid income inequality.
Since the introduction of so-called Reaganomics in the 1980s, the share of income and wealth held by the top 1 percent and the top 10 percent has been dramatically increased At the expense of everyone else. This is a global trend, but it's most pronounced in the United States
This has been exacerbated by the information revolution, huge skill premium (i.e. the difference in wages between skilled and unskilled workers). The combination of the transition to a service-based economy and increasing hollowing out has exacerbated already widening wealth disparities. Manufacturing sites across the Rust Belt are or have been With shutteraccelerated unemployment for blue-collar workers. As a result, inequality is now approaching levels last seen in the Roaring Twenties.
The 1980s also marked the end of the era of high economic growth. The American economy in the 1960s grow on average It increases by more than 4% per year. Over the past decade, this number has been around 2%. The effects of rapidly rising inequality and slowing economic growth are hitting people below the breadline hard.
Slower growth means that the economy is less able to buffer the effects of rising inequality. Because the pie grew slowly and was not evenly distributed, each generation was even worse off than its parents.
In the 40 years prior to Trump's first election victory, the real hourly wage of Americans without a college degree, 64% of the population, was: actually shrunk. Wages for workers with a high school diploma fell from $19.25 to $18.57, while wages for workers without a high school diploma fell from $15.50 to $13.66.
This influence is also evident in the housing market. In 2016, the average worker needs to work. 40% longer You can afford a median-priced home now more than you did in 1976.
This exposes the deep contradictions at the core of capitalist democracy. If inequality is increasing and the majority of people are worse off, how can the majority continue to vote for parties and presidents that perpetuate systems that do not benefit them?
The answer lies in the third driver: political polarization. Politicians resort to divisive election tactics to induce voters to vote for the other side. These are often seen as a growing threat to the United States
Topics vary: the war on terror, immigration, critical race theory, gender. But the strategy is the same. By focusing your anger on other issues, let's distract from the system's main contradiction: a democracy that primarily serves the elite.
The result is a political culture that is increasingly polarized and radicalized on both the right and the left. This polarization allows extreme populist positions to enter the political realm. It also creates an opportunity to exploit a divided political system, where many voters have lost faith in the system due to an authoritarian power grab. Trump was the first to seize that opportunity.
Truth be told, it's surprising that another “Donald Trump” didn't happen sooner. All that was needed was for a suitable presidential candidate to emerge during the 2008 Obama-McCain presidential campaign. All they need to do is weaponize the conditions created by the 1980s: slowing growth, rising inequality, and increasing polarization. This is the recipe for President Trump's populist power grab, which is shaking the very foundations of America's democratic culture.
Gilad Tanai is the founder and chairman of ERI Institute, a research firm specializing in social impact and philanthropy.
