Mid-term opinion poll reveals narrow margin after 100 days
As the midterm elections approach, recent rankings highlight closely contested races in the Senate and House of Representatives. With four Senate seats and 16 House seats at stake, the competition is intensifying.
In North Carolina, a greater number of Democrats express high interest in the elections compared to Republicans (51% to 42%). Moreover, the enthusiasm to vote is notably higher among Democrats (58% versus 50%). This level of excitement could be pivotal in the Senate races.
A recent poll shows Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley, capturing 53% to Whatley’s 44% in the race for the open Senate seat.
Cooper’s lead grows significantly among those most engaged in voting, with a 15-point margin (57% to 42%) among voters expressing high interest, and a 13-point lead (55% to 42%) among the highly motivated. Yet, the figures for those who are definitely voting remain unchanged (53% to 44%).
Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, faces Cooper, who served as governor from 2017 to 2025, in seeking to fill the seat vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
Cooper enjoys substantial backing from moderates, young voters, independents, college graduates, and women, and even has support from a fraction of non-MAGA Republicans and conservatives.
On the other hand, Whatley finds his strongest support among very conservative individuals, white evangelical Christians, non-college-educated white voters, and rural communities.
The motivations behind voter support show a gap, too. Roughly 52% of Whatley’s supporters say they back him, while 46% oppose Cooper. In contrast, a striking 84% of Cooper’s voters are choosing him rather than simply voting against Whatley (13%).
Most voters feel confident in their choices, with 81% of Cooper backers firmly supporting him compared to 77% for Whatley. Still, about one in five voters might switch their preferences.
Trump’s presence adds complexity for Whatley. His approval rating among North Carolinians stands at 40%, down from 47% two years ago. A notable 58% view him unfavorably, indicating a significant drop in perception.
Concerns over Whatley’s relationship with Trump are prevalent, with 48% of voters expressing unease. This unease spreads across a range of demographics, including a majority of moderates and many independents. In contrast, worries about Cooper’s ties to the Democratic establishment appear more partisan, with 42% of voters concerned, especially among Republicans, but far fewer independents and moderates feel similarly.
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, notes that Cooper’s edge is largely due to solid support from Democrats and independents. Whatley’s path to victory requires bridging the gap with non-MAGA Republicans and disaffected voters.
Personal favorability plays a role as well. Cooper’s favorability rating of 54% is considerably higher than Whatley’s 40%. Furthermore, Cooper holds a 12-point advantage among Democrats, whereas Whatley leads by 4 points among Republicans.
Whatley remains relatively unknown, with 14% of voters stating they either disapprove of him or haven’t heard of him, including about 10% of Republicans.
North Carolina voters hold somewhat unfavorable views of both parties, with 44% favorability for Republicans versus 54% unfavorability, and 42% for Democrats against 56% unfavorability.
Party loyalty has created strong negative sentiments, with a larger percentage of Democrats viewing Republicans negatively compared to Republicans viewing Democrats. For those who see both parties unfavorably, Cooper has double the support compared to Whatley (64% to 32%).
Inflation tops voter concerns, with 36% considering it the most critical issue influencing their Senate votes. Political divisions and healthcare issues follow, noted by 14% and 13% respectively.
When considering financial stability, half of respondents feel their situation is stable, while 12% report improvement. Yet, 38% say they are experiencing setbacks, which marks a slight decrease since two years ago.
North Carolina’s political history shows contrasting trends. Cooper won reelection by nearly 5 points in 2020, with Democrats having triumphed in eight of the last ten gubernatorial elections. Conversely, Republicans have claimed victory in 11 of the past 12 presidential elections, with Obama being the last Democrat to carry the state in 2008.
In the latest presidential race, Trump secured North Carolina with a 3-point edge.
This poll, led by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company, was conducted from July 23-27, 2026, and involved 1,005 randomly selected North Carolina registered voters. The sample reflects a margin of error of ± 3 percentage points.
