Kellogg on Russia’s Position in Ukraine Conflict

On Monday, Special Presidential Envoy Keith Kellogg expressed that he and the chief of staff recently informed President Trump about Russia’s struggles in its war with Ukraine.

Speaking at the Yalta European Security Conference in Kiev, Kellogg, alongside Air Force General Dan Kane, reassured the president of Russia’s weakened stance around six weeks ago, just before Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

“If Putin believes he’s winning, then he and I have fundamentally different ideas of what victory looks like,” Kellogg remarked. “If he were truly winning, he’d be in Kiev, he’d have control in the west of the Dnipro, and he’d be in Odessa. Winning would have meant a change in government.”

“In reality, Russia is losing this war,” he added emphatically.

Two military analysts recently assessed whether Putin had achieved any success in Ukraine, coinciding with sentiments expressed during Trump’s time in office, shedding light on internal discussions at the White House.

“I was adamant with the president—Mr. President, please don’t just take my word for it. General Dan Kane is right outside; let’s get his input,” Kellogg recalled. “He conveyed the same sentiment: ‘No, we couldn’t win.'”

The envoy mentioned he urged his colleagues in the Oval Office to not believe Putin’s assertions about the effectiveness of Russian forces.

“There’s been talk about the advantages of the Russian military,” Kellogg stated. “I told those in the room, ‘We’re going to kick their ass.'”

“What I mean is, don’t take their claims at face value. They aren’t as strong as Putin suggests.”

Kellogg acknowledged some minor territorial gains by Moscow in eastern Ukraine but emphasized that the costs greatly overshadow any achievements.

“They might be advancing in Donetsk and the Donbas region, but considering their gains in meters rather than miles, it’s certainly a costly endeavor,” he clarified. “People might not grasp the extent of that cost.”

He drew a comparison to the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, highlighting the staggering losses Russia has incurred—”I think well over a million,” he noted. “These numbers are reminiscent of World War I. Just think about it; the losses are astounding.”

“They pull tanks out of museums, yet they struggle to execute large maneuvers because Ukrainians are effectively taking them out. Ukrainian forces are fighting bravely.”

“So if you think the Russians are winning, simply put, they’re not, as Putin claims. The West needs to clearly push back on that narrative,” he argued.

Kellogg also commended Ukrainian forces for significantly reducing Russia’s military capabilities, asserting, “No one should fear the Russian army.”

“Yes, they possess nuclear power, and that’s a concern. But I doubt they have the capability to march towards Berlin or elsewhere,” he asserted.

Furthermore, Kellogg urged Western allies to adopt a firmer stance when dealing with Putin, particularly by halting Russian oil purchases, which he deemed a crucial revenue source fueling the Kremlin’s military efforts.

“You must exert significant financial pressure, which may entail taking some risks,” he advised. “A decisive action concerning oil would cut off their funding. They’re essentially a gas-based economy.”