Russia and the Expiration of the New START Treaty

After the recent expiration of the nuclear disarmament agreement with the United States, Russia has reportedly committed to following its restrictions, contingent on U.S. compliance.

The New START Treaty lapsed on February 5, which raises concerns about a renewed arms race, the first time in over fifty years that there are no restrictions between the two largest nuclear powers, according to reports. This situation has heightened anxieties regarding the potential for unregulated nuclear competition.

In September, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would adhere to the terms of the nuclear pact for one year post-expiration, provided the U.S. does the same. However, there’s a bit of complication here—President Donald Trump expressed a desire for China to join a new deal, but China has flatly rejected that idea.

Trump recently commented, suggesting that rather than renewing a treaty he deemed poorly negotiated, it would be better for nuclear experts to focus on crafting a more modernized agreement for the future.

With this treaty now expired, we seem to be stepping into uncertain territory, which might lead to the fastest arms race we’ve seen in decades.

In a response from the White House regarding queries about the expired treaty, officials referred back to Trump’s posts on Truth Social.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that the Russian government would respond carefully, analyzing U.S. military policy. He noted that it appears the U.S. isn’t rushing to move away from such restrictions, suggesting they may be in line to continue for the foreseeable future.

Lavrov mentioned, “We will keep a close watch on how the situation evolves. If we confirm that our American counterparts intend to ensure cooperation, we’ll actively work on a new agreement and address outstanding issues outside of the current Strategic Stability Pact.”

The New START Treaty was originally signed by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev in 2010 and took effect in 2011. It established specific limits on strategic offensive weapons, capping each side’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers at 700. There were also restrictions on the total number of warheads. These conditions remained until the treaty’s expiration last week.

The treaty’s end follows a recent meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, where discussions suggested both countries might agree to observe treaty conditions for at least six more months while negotiations for a new agreement occur during that time.

The State Department has not offered commentary on the matter as of now.