For over 150 years, Russia exercised control over the South Caucasus, a mountainous area nestled between Europe and Asia, employing tactics of domination, exploitation, and colonialist strategies. A key area of conflict has emerged surrounding the Armenian-backed strife in Karabakh, where Russia has acted both as a provocateur and a mediator.
Currently, Armenia and Azerbaijan are defining their borders more decisively. The U.S. sees an opportunity arising from this situation.
Russia’s ties with Azerbaijan have weakened significantly, especially following reports of torture and deaths involving Azerbaijani citizens in Russia. Authorities in Azerbaijan labeled the incident as “ethnically motivated” and have responded with multiple arrests, including editors from Russia’s state-controlled media who are accused of collaborating with Russian intelligence. A total of eight additional Russian nationals have been detained on charges related to drug trafficking and cybercrime.
This recent spike in tensions isn’t isolated; it stems from ongoing friction between the two nations, exacerbated by a civilian plane crash in Azerbaijan that claimed 38 lives. Following the incident, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanded an apology from Moscow, only to be met with silence, further straining relations. This has included escalating actions such as the shuttering of Russian media and cultural centers in Azerbaijan, along with substantial cyberattacks targeting the Azerbaijani state media.
Meanwhile, unresolved issues continue to pester Armenia. Just ahead of the tragic events concerning Azerbaijani nationals, Armenian leaders withdrew from discussions in a Russia-led security organization. Although Yerevan remains economically and militarily dependent on Russia, it is increasingly exploring partnerships with nations like Iran and India.
What was once seen as inconceivable—a rebellion against Russian influence by both Armenia and Azerbaijan—has unfolded. The erosion of Russian power in the South Caucasus can be attributed to two crucial events: Azerbaijan’s successful operations in Karabakh and the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
For nearly three decades, Russia had manipulated conflicts in separatist territories linked to Armenia in Karabakh to maintain leverage over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This strategy mirrored approaches taken in other former Soviet states like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. However, in the case of Karabakh, Russia was trying to exert control over both sides simultaneously.
With Azerbaijan’s victories in Karabakh in 2020 and early 2023, Russia’s influence took a substantial hit, especially as its focus diverted to the situation in Ukraine, leaving both Armenia and Azerbaijan less affected by Moscow’s sway.
Russia’s strategy of “divide and conquer” has bred resentment in both nations, which might now find common ground against their former dominant power.
In the midst of escalating tensions, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev are reportedly meeting in Dubai to further discuss potential peace agreements.
As these developments unfold, the U.S. must tread carefully, supporting both nations without heightening tensions. The focus should be on demonstrating a contrast to Russia, positioning itself as a benefactor that respects autonomy.
Washington could take two key actions to enhance its influence without exacerbating conflicts.
Firstly, investing in initiatives that would integrate Armenia into a central transport corridor could significantly shift the geopolitical landscape. This would enhance economic ties and allow for goods to move from Asia to Europe, effectively bypassing Russian influence and decreasing Armenia’s reliance on Moscow.
The second approach involves fostering defense cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel. While deterring an unpredictable Iran could be part of the aim, the primary focus should be preventing Russian aggression towards Azerbaijan, as evidenced by Tehran’s media rhetoric regarding Israeli actions in the region.
At the same time, there are pressing needs for partnerships with Armenia. Observers note that Armenia is precariously positioned, with internal challenges stemming from Russian-backed political factions. Additionally, Armenia’s heavy reliance on Russian energy sources showcases its vulnerability, with a significant percentage of its gas and oil coming from Moscow.
The decline of Russian dominance presents opportunities for new partnerships that emphasize respect for regional self-determination rather than furthering hegemonic ambitions.
