On Monday, Russia informed Ukraine that the war could only end if Ukraine conceded a significant amount of territory and agreed to limits on its military size, as detailed in a memorandum circulated by Russian media.
These conditions, brought up in talks in Istanbul, highlight Moscow’s ongoing unwillingness to budge on its war objectives, even with U.S. President Donald Trump advocating for an end to Ukraine’s “Bloodbus.”
Ukraine has consistently rejected these terms, viewing them as equivalent to surrendering.
During the second round of talks, which took place an hour after they began and was the first since March 2022, the involved parties, including representatives from Turkey, discussed the exchange of prisoners, aiming to return the bodies of some of the 12,000 fallen soldiers.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan termed the meeting significant, expressing hopes of facilitating a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey.
Nonetheless, no significant progress was made towards a ceasefire that Ukraine and its European ally, the U.S., urged Russia to accept.
Moscow claims it is seeking a long-term resolution rather than just a temporary cessation of hostilities, while Kiev maintains that Putin has no genuine interest in peace. Trump indicated that he might step away from mediation if there’s no noticeable progress towards negotiations.
The Defense Minister of Ukraine, leading the Kiev delegation, noted that Ukraine has developed its own peace roadmap. After reviewing Russian proposals, he refrained from immediate comment.
Ukraine has suggested reconvening for further discussions by the end of June, but Umerov stated that meaningful resolutions might require a direct meeting between Zelensky and Putin.
Zelensky shared a list of 400 children that Ukraine claimed were taken by Russia, but the Russian side only agreed to return 10, stating the children were relocated to safer areas away from the conflict.
Russia’s Conditions
A Russian memorandum reported by the Interfax News Agency indicated that any reconciliation would necessitate international recognition of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, along with the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow claims as its territory. Ukraine would need to withdraw its military from those areas.
Furthermore, Russia’s demands included making Ukraine a neutral state, which would entail renouncing NATO membership, safeguarding the rights of Russian speakers, designating Russian as the official language, and implementing laws against Nazi glorification.
Ukraine has dismissed the Nazi allegations as baseless and has denied any discrimination against Russian speakers.
Russia laid out two potential conditions for a ceasefire, both of which seem unacceptable to Ukraine.
The first option requires Ukraine to completely withdraw its military from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions. Russia claims full control over Luhansk while controlling about 70% of the others.
The second option suggests that Ukraine must cease military movements and halt military aid, including foreign intelligence and satellite communications. Additionally, Ukraine would need to lift martial law and conduct presidential and parliamentary elections within 100 days.
Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation, mentioned that Moscow could propose a brief ceasefire in certain areas to recover the remains of fallen soldiers.
According to a draft proposal from Ukraine, which was viewed by Reuters, there are no intentions to restrict military presence post-agreement, nor do they seek international acknowledgment of Russian control over parts of Ukraine.
Ukraine Targets Russian Bomber Fleet
The conflict continues to escalate, with Russia executing its largest drone strike to date while advancing more rapidly on the battlefield in May, the fastest pace in six months.
On Sunday, Ukraine reported launching 117 drones in an operation dubbed “Spider’s Web” targeting Russian long-range bombers in Siberia and northern airfields.
Satellite evidence proposed that the attack caused considerable damage, but interpretations from both sides varied.
Western military experts characterized this strike, occurring thousands of miles from the frontline, as one of the most audacious Ukrainian military maneuvers to date.
Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is a key element of the nation’s military capabilities, alongside ground and submarine-launched missiles, forming the core of its nuclear arsenal. The U.S. and its allies are cautious due to Putin’s recurring warnings about Russia’s nuclear strength.
Officials from the current U.S. administration noted that Trump and the White House were unaware of this assault ahead of time.
A former official remarked that Ukraine typically does not disclose plans for such operations to Washington for security reasons.
British officials also indicated they were not briefed in advance about the strike.
Zelensky remarked that the operation, which involved using a drone concealed in a wooden shed, helped bolster confidence among Ukraine’s allies regarding their commitment to the conflict.
“Ukraine asserts we will not yield or give in to the ultimatum,” he stated during an online news briefing.
“It’s not that we desire to fight, nor are we trying to showcase our strength; we feel compelled to respond because our adversaries refuse to cease hostilities.”
