Every night, long-distance Russian drones cluster together, causing chaos and fear among hundreds of Ukrainians for hours. They specifically target areas in the eastern industrial regions close to Poland’s border.
At the moment, Russia seems to be escalating its drone attacks in Ukraine, launching more drones than it did during a single night in 2024. On July 8, over 700 drones were sent out, setting a new record for their operations.
Some analysts speculate that this number could soon exceed 1,000 drones per day.
The rise in attacks coincided with discussions around a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Russia, which could either be set for early September or lead to new sanctions.
Russia has significantly ramped up its drone capabilities, first importing Shahed drones from Iran and later enhancing domestic production and design.
The Russian Ministry of Defense revealed plans to restructure its drone units and has set up a center focused on enhancing drone tactics and training for operators.
Fighting the “Drone War”
Both Russian military bloggers and Western analysts noted efforts to modify Iranian drones to improve their altitude and interception resistance. Some even incorporate artificial intelligence for autonomous operations.
The drones, both original Shaheds and their Russian equivalents (known as “Geran” or “Geranium”), boast engines that can reach speeds of over 110 mph, with faster models reportedly in development.
Amidst the ongoing conflict, one image captured destroyed windows of a building in Odesa after a drone attack on July 22.
The Washington-based War Institute pointed out that, through cooperation with China, Russia can bypass Western sanctions that restrict electronic component imports for drone manufacturing. Ukraine’s intelligence estimates that up to 65% of drone components may be sourced from China, although Beijing disputes this claim.
Russia began its domestic drone production at a facility in Tatarstan, with additional production ramps in Udmurtia. Despite Ukraine’s efforts to attack these factories, operations continue unhindered.
A state-run report touted the Alabuga facility as the world’s largest attack drone manufacturing site. The director, Timur Shagibaleiyev, emphasized its capability to produce all necessary components in-house, even maintaining a training school for operators.
Changing Tactics and Defenses
Russian forces have adapted their tactics, increasingly deploying a type of drone called “Gerbera” to distract Ukrainian defenses while more deadly drones follow through. By launching numerous drones in a single wave, the objective is to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense systems.
Mikhail Zubinchuk, a former Russian Defense Ministry spokesperson, indicated that troops have learned to target several areas to maximize impact. Drones often fly for hours, effectively maneuvering past defensive measures.
Alexander Cott, another military commentator, remarked that Russian production capabilities now allow for frequent large-scale strikes without needing breaks to gather resources.
In response, Ukraine has developed machine gun-armed mobile teams to counter drones and minimize reliance on expensive air defense systems. They are also working on interceptor drones to bolster their defenses against the rising drone onslaught.
How Russia Offers All These Drones
Despite international sanctions and economic challenges, Russia’s military expenditure increased by 3.4% in 2024. While there may be budgetary pressures ahead, current spending appears manageable for the Kremlin.
President Putin claimed that over 1.5 million drones of various types were supplied to the military last year.
Intelligence reports suggest that since 2022, Russia has launched more than 28,000 Shahed and Geran drones. While ballistic and cruise missiles are faster and have greater destructive capacity, they are much more costly and limited in number compared to the relatively inexpensive Jeland drones.
With a range of about 1,240 miles, these drones are capable of bypassing some defenses and carry a substantial payload, making them a favored tool for military strategy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia is expected to unleash between 700 and 1,000 drones daily, with some military officials indicating aspirations to deploy as many as 2,000 in a single strike.
Russia Can Create Its Own Military Division in Drones
On the frontline, short-range attack drones have become commonplace, altering the dynamics of battlefield engagements by quickly identifying and targeting units within a 10-kilometer range.
Initially, Russian drone units depended on initiatives from mid-level commanders, often utilizing equipment bought through private donations. However, with the availability of drones in greater numbers, these units were consolidated last fall under a unified command.
Now, there’s a push for these unmanned systems to be recognized as a separate branch of the military under the Ministry of Defense’s initiative, backed by Putin.
Russia’s focus on battlefield drones includes advancements like fiber optic lines that resist jamming and provide a range exceeding 15 miles. A new training center, Rubicon, is dedicated to enhancing operator skills and developing effective strategies.
Such drones have extended capabilities to reach and target supply and command structures once considered safe, presenting new challenges for Ukrainian defense. Military expert Michael Coffman noted that the Ukrainian forces must adapt their strategies to deeply entrench themselves in defense.
