The gods of mid-major basketball occasionally give you a chance to gamble in the mid-week mornings or early afternoons when work is lackluster.
This week, NEC Front Row will broadcast the game between the Saint Francis Red Flash and the Sacred Heart Pioneers on Thursday mornings at 11 a.m. ET. Link Where to stream baseball games (for free).
This game marks the start of an exciting Northeast Conference season.
Sacred Heart was the preseason favorite, but Merrimack or Central Connecticut appear to be better.
Meanwhile, St. Francis was picked last in the nation's worst conference.
However, the Flash slightly exceeded preseason expectations, posting three wins over DI competitors and several more than Stone Hill and Long Island.
Granted, it's not the most glamorous ballgame on Thursday, but it's one that tips off just before noon.
This is how I'm betting.
St. Francis vs. Sacred Heart odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
| saint francis | +7.5 (-102) | +280 | o140.5 (-110) |
| Sacred Heart | -7.5 (-120) | -360 | u140.5 (-110) |
(via FanDuel)
St. Francis vs. Sacred Heart Prediction
The Red Flash are one of the most inexperienced teams in the country. The 12 scholarship students are all underclassmen, 7 are sophomores, and 5 are freshmen.
They rely primarily on guards Cam Gregory, Carlos Lopez, and Aaron Talbert to play in the backcourt, with those three accounting for 31.1 of the team's 66.2 points per game. There is.
They ran a fair amount of pick-and-rolls, and Talbert and Gregory played well in those sets.
Unfortunately for the Flash, Sacred Heart's ball screen defense held up in non-conference play, with the Pioneers' pick-and-roll ball handlers having a PPP of just 0.64, ranking them in the 86th percentile.
Guard Joey Riley defended these sets very well.
In contrast, the Pioneers have a frontcourt-centric offense led by Nico Garrett and Alex Sobel (and usually the unfortunately injured Tanner Thomas).
Garrett is reliable primarily because of his versatility.
He is a true third-level scorer whose bucket-getting prowess could lead to an NEC POY award. And I especially love his mid-range shooting ability. I hesitate to call him a non-major Kobe Bryant, but it's not that far off.
Sobel, on the other hand, is a more paint-oriented scorer, scoring nine paint points per game with high efficiency (60% shooting).
I can’t say I like St. Francis’ chances against this duo. The Red Flash are a backcourt-oriented team as they field a completely inexperienced, incompetent, freshmen-only frontcourt led by Aidan Harris and Eli Wilborn.
Behind this duo, the Flash rank 301st nationally in two-point defense, 331st in post-up PPP and 344th in defensive rebound percentage.
At the end of the day, I like playing against the Pioneers. While Sacred Heart's backcourt defense can withstand St. Francis' backcourt offense, SFPA's frontcourt defense cannot do the same against SHU's frontcourt offense.
Last year, the Flash defeated the Pioneers 78-76 in overtime in early February. But that was when SFPA still had All-NEC center Josh Cohen, who scored 27 points while recording nine rebounds, two blocks, and two steals.
Cohen currently plays at UMass, and the Flash lack a suitable frontcourt replacement. That's going to trouble St. Francis this year, especially in this matchup.
The defensive aggressiveness of these two players is also worth noting.
Both teams are forcing turnovers at a top-100 rate, and Sacred Heart loves using the press against an up-tempo, transition-oriented offense.
Sacred Heart can withstand pressure. The Pioneers run the floor and he has a 1.25 PPP in transition against the press offense (83rd percentile) and ranks in the top 200 nationally in turnover rate.
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Meanwhile, the Flash rank 351st in turnover rate, giving up the ball 22% of the time and failing to handle pressure.
Finally, while the Flash are inexperienced, the Pioneers are more experienced, with four seniors and one junior in the starting five.
They also rank in the top 40 nationally in duration, so roles are clearly defined and the team knows how to play together.
Therefore, I would like Sacred Heart to start the season, hopefully in the NEC Championship, with a big win at home in a great matchup.
And I think the lines are short.
Bart Torbic projects the Pioneers as an 11-point home favorite against the Flash, while the ShotQualityBets model projects them as a whopping 20-point favorite.
That's why we're excited to bring you less than 10 to Sacred Heart in Fairfield on Thursday morning.
Saint Francis vs Sacred Heart Pick
Sacred Heart -7.5 (-120) | Play until -9.5 (-110)
