The Biden administration is preparing to transfer power, but leaves without achieving the much-discussed diplomatic goal of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia with formal U.S. security guarantees to Riyadh. Become. There were rumors of a formal defense agreement in early 2024, but this agreement has not yet materialized. Secretary of State Antony Blinken Confirmed These arguments will be made in Congressional testimony.
Despite the Biden administration, the future of the formal security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia remains uncertain. Looks like he's still chasing me non-involvement agreement broader trading Israel's concessions to a Palestinian state. The administration may want to fast-track the deal so it's done by January 20, but sending more U.S. troops to countries that have little in common with the U.S. in interests and values. It's not wise to do so.
Hawk organizations and analysts suggested Closer and enhanced defense cooperation with Riyadh would “reduce the need for direct American intervention.” Experts say a formal defense agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia could not only serve as a deterrent against Iran, but also allow the US to force Saudi Arabia to sever ties with China and prevent Riyadh from entering China's sphere of influence. He argues that it is also an opportunity to do so.
However, a formal security agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia risks upsetting the balance of power in the Middle East and increasing the risk that Iran views the United States as a threat.
As Jennifer Kavanaugh of Defense Priorities recently discussedpartnering with destabilizing powers such as Saudi Arabia will further entangle the United States in the Middle East. The US has already contributed to moral hazard by supplying arms to the first Saudi-UAE coalition in 2015. Decisive Battle of Operation Storm The bombing campaign in Yemen has resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
These efforts are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, where around three-quarters of the country's population lives. living in poverty. Rather than giving Washington an opportunity to withdraw from the region, increasing security cooperation with Riyadh would embolden the Saudi regime to continue destabilizing the region.
The US government paid a price for enabling Saudi recklessness. After Saudi Arabia and other Arab states intervened in Yemen's civil war after the rebels took control of the capital Sanaa in 2015, Yemen's Houthis portray ourselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause. The Houthis have since very confused Between the start of the war in Gaza and September 20, 2024, it carried out 130 attacks in the Red Sea. However, Saudi Arabia's commercial interests more affected The Red Sea turmoil has the United States doing more heavy lifting than the United States. be involved militarily In attacks against the Houthis.
Since there is no true regional hegemony in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia faces no threats to its sovereignty. Regional stability is one of Washington's main rationales for relations with Riyadh. However, Saudi Arabia involved In nearly every conflict zone and geopolitical fault line across the Middle East. Additionally, the weapons given to Saudi Arabia include: eventually falls into the hands of the enemyincluding Al Qaeda and Iran. Additionally, corruption and lack of transparency in the Saudi defense establishment It's a common problem.
In addition to mismanaging military aid, depriving Saudi Arabia of the equipment it needs to strengthen its defenses would undermine U.S. interests in a higher-priority theater, the Indo-Pacific. With the war in Ukraine continuing and a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, U.S. military industrial bases are Already facing constraintsit will impose an additional burden. The extent of the tension has not been disclosed, but Washington's missile inventory, both offensive and defensive, is is decreasing. Avoiding conflict with China through deterrence provide asymmetric weapons Deploying mobile air defense systems and other equipment to Taiwan should be a top priority.
Concerns that China will replace the United States as the Middle East's security power are unfounded. China little or no ability to exert force The United States strongly opposes military intervention, alliances, and base establishment, citing the United States' misfortunes in the Middle East as a wake-up call. The Chinese government is delighted to see the United States mired in what it considers a quagmire. China's transactional approach to the region does not threaten America's limited real interests in the Middle East.
The U.S. government must be cautious about strengthening alliances in areas where it has the highest priorities. Preliminary intervention in the Middle East should guide the cost-benefit analysis of the United States in providing security to Saudi Arabia. A sober assessment of the U.S.-Saudi alliance will reveal that the costs to U.S. interests, values, and priorities far outweigh the strategic benefits.
Alex Little holds a master's degree from Georgia Tech and specializes in Russian and Central Asian issues. He is also a contributor to Young Voices.
