Senate Democrats in key battleground states have consistently outperformed President Biden in opinion polls, stoking speculation that November could see the first split vote in years.
Voting for different parties on the same slate of candidates is becoming increasingly rare in the United States as political polarization grows. Some lower-ranking Democratic candidates currently have higher approval ratings than the president, but observers warn that the gap between them is likely to narrow as the election approaches.
Still, the relative polling strength of Democratic Senate candidates in states such as Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania suggests that at least some voters will support them while also backing presidential candidates other than Donald Trump or Biden.
“This is a more split vote than usual, but there’s also a higher level of undecidedness than normal, so I think that’s playing a role,” said Matt Taglia, senior director of the Emerson College Poll. “The dynamics of this election are completely different than past elections, even the 2020 election.”
Split-party voting, although frequently discussed during election season, is becoming increasingly rare.
In 1972, President Richard Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern in a landslide victory, winning 49 states. However, 190 House districts were Elected According to the Pew Research Center, the Democratic representative that year was
In 1988, there were about 150 districts that cast separate votes for president and congressional elections. By 2012, that number had dropped to just 26.
The 2016 election marked the first time in modern history that states voted for the same party in both presidential and senatorial elections, a feat that was nearly repeated in 2020, when Maine became the only state to split its votes in presidential and senatorial elections, supporting Biden but re-electing Sen. Susan Collins (R-California).
There are still five months until Election Day in 2024, but polls suggest there could be at least some return to highly split voting.
While most polls show Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, one reason for optimism for Democrats is that their Senate candidates have consistently led in the polls.
According to a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling average, Democrats have at least a two-point lead over their Republican opponents in most of the key states that control the Senate – Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Pollsters from various polling organizations have taken note of this and found Biden trailing by several points.
A CBS News/YouGov poll from Arizona last month Indicated Biden leads by 5 points point The presumptive Democratic candidate for the Senate election, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), is leading his presumptive Republican opponent, Kali Lake, by more than 10 votes.
Though the difference is less dramatic, a state poll conducted by Emerson in late April found that: Indicated In Arizona, Trump has a four-point lead, while Lake is two points behind. In Pennsylvania, another Emerson poll shows Trump leading by four points, but Sen. Bob Casey (Democrat) leading Republican Dave McCormick by the same number.
New York Times/Siena College Poll release A poll last month showed Biden trailing by 12 points in Nevada, a worrying sign for his prospects in the state if true, but the same poll also showed Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-N.Y.) leading by 2 points over Biden’s leading Republican challenger, Sam Brown.
That gap has been in place for months, though it varies by state and poll. That trend is also playing out in North Carolina, where Biden is trailing Trump by a few points but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and Republican candidate Mark Robinson are neck and neck.
Taglia said the disparity is due to some Trump supporters and Republicans backing Democratic Senate candidates, adding that independents are also leaning toward those candidates, giving them an advantage.
He said he expects the division on Election Day will not be as stark as the polls suggest.
“I think we’re going to see more splitting of the vote this election, and we’re seeing that in the polls, but I don’t think it’s necessarily going to be as pronounced as it is now,” Taglia said. “I think we’re going to see more of a normal distribution, but we’re not there yet.”
Democrats are largely on the defensive in this year’s Senate elections, and the layout of the seats up for grabs gives Republicans plenty of room to gain. But Democrats have an advantage: Most of the senators are longtime incumbents,Meters Their supporters know this well.
Analysts said while name recognition may play some role in explaining the trend, it’s not the only factor.
Joe Zepecki, a Wisconsin Democratic strategist, noted that Democratic candidates have not struggled to raise funds, while Republicans are backing wealthy candidates who can provide much of their own funding for their campaigns.
Zepecki noted that the wealthy Republican candidate leading the Wisconsin Senate race, Eric Hovde, has been advertising on television for months but is still trailing Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
He noted that Lake has name recognition as a former Republican candidate for governor in 2022, while Gallego is running for statewide office for the first time.
Democrats argue that various weaknesses among Republican senate candidates give them an edge in holding onto the Senate, given that they would likely need to win every key state and use the vice presidency to break any tiebreaking votes to maintain their majority, leaving them little room for error.
“One of the problems with the Trump era within the Republican Party is that qualified, competent, sane, sober and sound-minded leaders with sound judgment didn’t want to be part of Donald Trump’s Republican Party and they left, and the result was some terrible candidates,” Zepecki said.
Biden needs to catch up with other Democrats.
“Everybody knows who President Biden is, and these numbers show that voters don’t like the status quo,” said Republican strategist Alex Zdan. “Trump is beloved by Republican voters, but Biden is tolerated.”
Zdan said Democratic Senate candidates could outperform Republicans because voters know they want Democrats to control Congress even if they have doubts about the presidential nominee.
He said the entry of independent candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the presidential race is another factor that could widen the divide. Kennedy said he is running in more than a half-dozen states and has met signature requirements in several more.
“Democratic voters can go to the polls and vote for the Democratic senatorial candidate and then pull the lever for RFK Jr.,” he said. “That’s an option that hasn’t existed before, but that’s open to them this year.”
Taglia said political parties traditionally want their presidential candidate to lead and aren’t too worried if some of their senatorial or gubernatorial candidates are a little behind because the top candidate can pull them up with a “coattail effect.”
“That’s not going to happen this time. Rather, the Biden team has an opportunity to have some really good surrogates on the ground,” he said.
He said those Senate candidates may not want to be associated with Biden given his unpopularity, but their advantage could work in the incumbent president’s favor anyway.
“This will be an investment that the Biden campaign doesn’t necessarily have to make. It’s an investment plus a bonus just from statewide candidates getting people out to the polls, energizing people and bringing attention to Democratic issues,” Taglia said.
But it’s not clear which side will ultimately benefit.
“If I’m involved in one campaign or the other, I don’t necessarily favor one over the other. [polling situation]”But this is the opposite of what would normally be expected,” he said.
