As friction mounts between MAGA and establishment factions, several Republican Senate incumbents are already eyeing the threat of challenges in next year's primaries.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who plans to run for re-election in 2026, may face Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of President-elect Trump, in the primary election. There is. Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana), who voted to convict President Trump in his 2021 impeachment, has already selected a MAGA challenger. Sen. Thom Tillis (R.N.C.), who was censured by the state party in 2023, could also face a tough fight from the right.
These vulnerable Republican senators will have to walk the tightrope of supporting some of President Trump's most controversial Cabinet picks and bills while appealing to a broad swath of voters in their home states. .
Ron Bonjean, a former Senate press secretary and Republican strategist, said, “The senators standing up now are watching the growth of the MAGA movement and are aware that tough votes cast today could become major challenges tomorrow.'' I understand,” he said.
“They've seen Trump's political battles and historic Republican victories in Congress and the White House. And senators who are cautious on certain issues have seen what their own backyards look like and the domestic There is no doubt that we will be strongly considering things like how strong the MAGA infrastructure is,” Bonjean said. “It’s probably even stronger now.”
Last year, Republicans won control of the White House and both chambers of Congress as much of the country moved to the right. But control of Congress will be at stake again in 2026, as one-third of Senate seats are up for re-election. Republicans will be on the defensive in 20 states, while Democrats will be in 13 states.
In the wake of Trump's victory, Republican Senate incumbents expected to be most vulnerable next fall will be those who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, or those who are likely to vote to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial. These are the members of Congress who have indicated that they may oppose it. Second term cabinet election.
“From Trump's perspective, I think the threat of primaries is real. This is a way to get members of Congress on the same page,” said Republican strategist and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.). said former adviser Brian Darling.
Tillis, who began his re-election campaign In the battleground state of North Carolina, the Trump administration took a negative stance last month regarding former Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who withdrew his nomination for attorney general, and Pete Hegseth, Trump's attorney general nominee. He is one of the people who is seen as a potential obstacle to the Cabinet nominations. Secretary of Defense.
Tillis also came under fire from the North Carolina Republican Party in 2023 for supporting policies that some said were inconsistent with conservative values.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) also Seeking a third term During 2026 Scrutiny of her questions About Hegseth. Last month, conservative media personality Charlie Kirk warned Ernst: Shouldn't be “surprised” On major challenges if she ignores the president-elect's agenda.
“I don't think not supporting a candidate will make or break a primary,” Bonjean said. “But it will be an achievement.” [a] High levels of non-voting, high levels of voting against the Trump administration. ”
I'm in Louisiana, Cassidy. not officially announced He plans to run for third term, but Louisiana Treasurer claims senators' vote to convict Trump in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol was a “failure” for the Pelican State It still elicits a formal challenge from John Fleming. .
Even Cassidy objected. Part of President Trump's cabinet selectionsDarling said “he's going to beg” for a competitive primary.
Tough primaries in already red states like Iowa and Louisiana don't necessarily mean Republicans are at risk of losing seats, but they shift them to the right. This may indicate a possibility.
As Cornyn plans to seek a fifth term in the Senate, speculation is swirling Texas Attorney General Paxton may try to expel him. Mr. Cornyn is seen as a veteran representative of the state's Republican Party, while Mr. Paxton is seen as a leader of the state's emerging far-right wing.
Republicans are at risk of losing a seat in Maine, held by Sen. Susan Collins (R). I plan to run for a sixth term.have I have never faced the first challenger. But last cycle, they won by a single-digit margin. In November, Vice President Harris defeated President Trump in Maine by seven points.
Michael Zona, a Republican strategist and former aide to Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), said this could give Collins breathing room when supporting Trump's Cabinet picks. He said that there is.
Otherwise, as 2026 approaches, whether President Trump endorses a candidate “will be more decisive than any other factor,” Zona told The Hill in a statement.
“Senators who have not supported President Trump in the past are at risk of losing their nominations, especially into next year,” Zona said. “The best the senators can hope for is for him to remain silent on the campaign trail. That's a big gamble, and I wouldn't bet on those odds. These senators… You have to imagine that he's working behind the scenes to repair his relationship with the president.”
A looming departure or possible retirement could also complicate the Republican numbers battle next year. Some observers have focused on Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), 82, who has clashed with President Trump in the past, but has not yet announced whether he will seek reelection.
Vice President-elect J.D. Vance officially resigned from his seat in the U.S. Senate representing Ohio last week. Buckeye State Governor Mike DeWine (Republican) It is said that they met He is expected to name a replacement after meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago last month.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), who was nominated by President Trump to be Secretary of State, also plans to vacate his seat if confirmed, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is not sure who to fill the seat. Speculation has been swirling for weeks.
There is also a chance to pick up the Republican Party.
Joanna Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.) are up for re-election in states where Trump beat Harris. , Democratic Party).
“Our incumbents and challengers are committed to working with President Trump and his administration to restore the prosperity, security, and peace through the power that Americans so desperately desire,” Rodriguez said in a statement.
The Senate Republican campaign arm has previously supported incumbents on primary issues and is expected to remain that way in 2026.
“Midterm elections tend to be bad for the party in power,” Darling said, adding that ousting incumbent senators in primaries is also a key challenge. not an easy job.
But Darling said Trump was “a somewhat unusual leader” who helped Republicans gain seats in the Senate despite losing the House majority in the midterm elections during his first term.
“It's going to be tough. It's going to be a difficult cycle. This is a great test to see if Trump's realignment will last.”
