Maine voters seem to be feeling pretty uneasy this election cycle. Only about 12% of them believe their economic situation has improved over the past two years. Also, more than 60% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance—this includes about 20% of Republicans.
A recent survey of likely voters in Maine indicates that this general sentiment is affecting Republican Senator Susan Collins. Approximately 53% of respondents think she aligns with Trump too often, while 46% are worried that her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, is too liberal.
Interestingly, despite these concerns, the race appears to be a toss-up, with both Collins and Jackson receiving 49% support. Notably, all survey interviews were conducted after the candidates’ debate on October 15.
Collins, who first secured her seat nearly 30 years ago, is looking to secure a sixth term. She stands out as the only Republican senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 by a margin of 7 points. Back in 2020, Collins had a nearly 9-point victory.
Democrats see Maine as critical in their strategy to gain control of the Senate. When voters are asked about which party should lead the U.S. Senate, 53% favor a Democratic majority, compared to 45% who would like the Republicans to stay in power. Almost all of Jackson’s supporters (96%) want the Democrats in charge, yet Collins’ backing is more mixed—while 89% want Republican control, 9% would prefer a Democratic-led Senate.
Collins will need to rally her supporters against a backdrop of considerable enthusiasm from the left. A larger share of Democrats (79%) express high interest in the election compared to Republicans (61%), which might explain why Jackson is currently holding a 16-point advantage within that demographic. He also leads by 4 points among self-identified likely voters and has a considerable 40-point margin among those who have already cast their ballots. Conversely, a slight majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they lean towards Collins by 12 points.
Interestingly, Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research comments on Collins’ ability to surpass expectations: “While she’s done it before, Democrats are certainly more energized this time around. Trump’s ratings are pretty low—double-edged sword for Republicans.” Jackson could capitalize on this momentum if he manages to extend his reach beyond his base.
The negative perception of Trump’s performance creates hurdles for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, only 37% of voters approve of his presidency, while a significant 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.
Both candidates face challenges regarding personal favorability, with Jackson being viewed unfavorably by 49% of voters and Collins by 51%.
When it comes to key demographic groups, there’s a notable distinction: voters under 45 prefer Collins by 6 points, while those aged 45 and older lean towards Jackson by 3 points. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men favor Collins by 4 points. The educational divide is particularly sharp, with college-educated Mainers backing Jackson by 23 points, and Collins leading among those without a degree by 16 points.
Collins holds an advantage in rural areas, winning by 7 points, while Jackson captures a robust 18-point lead among suburban voters. In contrast, during the 2020 elections, Collins received 18-point leads in both rural areas and among voters without a college degree.
Commenting on the Republicans’ struggle with rural White voters, Shaw mentions, “They really need these voters to turn out, and ideally need something close to a 65-35 split to balance the urban Democratic strength.” Party loyalty remains strong, as 90% of each candidate’s supporters stand firmly behind them, although independents lean towards Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) enjoy a high degree of vote certainty.
In the gubernatorial race in Maine, Democrat Hannah Pingree appears to lead Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, polling at 49% to 39%, with independent candidate Rick Bennett garnering 9% of support.
Interestingly, while Jackson’s supporters largely back Pingree (only 8% diverge), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) are swayed to vote for either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).
This survey was conducted from October 16 to October 20, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with insights gathered from a sample of 1,689 registered voters in Maine. Respondents engaged through a mix of landline and cellphone interviews or completed the survey online after receiving a text message. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is ±2 percentage points, with a slightly higher margin for subsamples. Various demographic weights were applied to align the sample with the broader voter population, ensuring a representative breakdown in terms of age, race, education, and geographical region.
