US Business Activity Slows Down in September
The latest flash reading from S&P Global indicates that US business activity has lost some steam in September. The index dropped to 53.6 from August’s 54.6. For context, readings above 50 signify expansion, which suggests the private sector may be facing challenges in gaining further momentum.
Breaking down the details, the PMI for manufacturing declined from 53 to 52, yet it remains in the growth zone. Meanwhile, the services sector experienced a dip, sliding from 54.5 to 53.9, hinting at possibly reduced demand.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that September’s output growth is consistent with a projected annual growth rate of 2.2% for the economy in the third quarter. So, despite the slowdown, there’s still some positive movement.
Market Reaction
In response to the release, the US dollar maintained its daily gains, lingering around the 93.40 mark as observed by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Today’s US Dollar Price
The following table displays how the US dollar (USD) is changing in value against other currencies today, showing it was particularly strong against the New Zealand dollar.
| Currency | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.14% | -0.07% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 0.19% | -0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.12% | 0.11% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.07% | -0.05% | 0.18% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 0.12% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.00% | -0.12% | 0.12% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.18% | -0.12% | -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.23% |
This heatmap illustrates the currency fluctuations today. For instance, selecting US dollars and moving to the Japanese Yen gives the change rate in that box.
This preview was provided ahead of the US S&P Global PMI data release at 08:00 GMT.
- The S&P Global Flash PMI for September is anticipated to show continued expansion.
- Both employment and inflation sub-indexes are drawing some focus before the PCE inflation data comes out.
- EUR/USD is expected to stay relevant in the near future and appears to be in a holding pattern.
The S&P Global is set to release the September Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for major economies, including the US. This index surveys top private sector executives to gauge the business sector’s economic health as the month unfolds.
Market analysts predict that the service PMI will register at 53.9, down from August’s 54.5, while production output is expected to decrease slightly to 52.0 from last month’s 53.0. Overall, the composite PMI is likely to align with the final reading of 54.6 from August.
S&P Global differentiates manufacturing from service activities, reporting on both areas distinctly. Generally, readings over 50 signify growth, whereas figures below that indicate contraction.
The report comes out in two versions—initial and final revised—over the next couple of weeks, with preliminary data often influencing the US dollar significantly.
Moreover, signs of recovery in manufacturing PMIs, which remain above 50, are fueling optimism about the economic outlook. “The promising Flash PMI reading in August points to solid performance from US companies in the third quarter.” The current data suggests an annual growth rate of 2.5%, quite a jump from an average of 1.3% seen in the earlier two quarters.
Looking Ahead to the Next S&P Global PMI Report
A somewhat unexpected boost in production output has raised hopes for the September report. Investors are keen for confirmation that the US economy is on a steady upward trajectory.
If the numbers are in line with expectations, they will likely be interpreted as good news, particularly concerning production PMIs. Positive results could help bolster Wall Street’s recent highs while also stimulating demand for the US dollar. On the flip side, outcomes falling short might further weaken the dollar and spark speculation about significant interest rate cuts.
Beyond the main figures, the report also includes insights on employment and inflation, which many market players are keenly observing. More detailed data will arrive on Friday with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which could mitigate the impact of the PMIs’ subindexes. Still, with not much else on the horizon, financial markets are likely to react strongly to the preliminary S&P Global data.
When Will the Flash US S&P Global PMI Be Released in September?
Scheduled for Tuesday at 13:45 GMT, the S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Combined PMIs report will detail how US business activities progressed in September.
Before the release, it’s expected that the USD will trade weakly against most other major currencies, remaining close to annual lows against the EUR.
FXSTREET Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik commented on the EUR/USD pair, mentioning it has been confined to a tight range since mid-August, recently hitting a 2025 peak of 1.1918. However, it may soon experience a pullback. Buyers seem to be protecting the downside near the 1.1720 level.
Bednarik further noted that immediate resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.1830, with the prior peak at 1.1918. She expressed skepticism that the S&P Global PMIs will drive the pair beyond the 1.2000 mark, with 1.1600 seeming like an unlikely extreme given the context of this report.
