New Jersey voters are making their sentiments towards President Trump clear, even though he’s not on the ballot this year. A recent Fox News poll indicates that there’s an 11-point gap between negative and positive views of Trump, with many voters planning to participate in the gubernatorial election primarily to express their opposition to him.
Currently, Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 52% to 45% as the election date approaches. While Sherrill’s 7-point lead is just outside the poll’s margin of sampling error, it shows a slight shift from earlier in the month when she had a 5-point advantage, and an 8-point lead in September.
“It’s a cliché, but it holds true,” said Republican Daron Shaw, who co-leads the poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “This election hinges on turnout. The big question remains: Will Trump supporters show up?” There’s some evidence pointing to Sherrill’s supporters being more likely to vote, but the enthusiasm from Ciattarelli’s base appears mixed. I guess the final weekend will be crucial for both sides.
Among those who feel very enthusiastic about voting, Ciattarelli has a slight edge, leading by 5 points. However, Sherrill is favored by 4 points among those who are highly enthusiastic. It’s interesting that a higher percentage of Republicans (52%) express strong enthusiasm compared to Democrats (40%).
Ciattarelli’s backers are largely confident—about 93% say they’re committed to voting for him. For Sherrill, that figure is at 91%. Yet, there’s a small percentage, around 8%, who might switch candidates before voting. Only 3% indicated they’d consider candidates outside the main parties or remain undecided.
Sherrill’s support among women shows a significant 16-point lead, while among men, Ciattarelli is slightly ahead with a 1-point lead, resulting in a 17-point difference between the genders. He holds a 4-point lead among white voters and a stronger 10-point margin among college-educated men. Nearly all (98%) of those identifying with Trump’s MAGA movement back him.
Conversely, Sherrill leads nonwhite voters by 48 points, voters under 45 by 24 points, and has a 16-point advantage among college graduates. Support from Democrats is overwhelmingly in her favor at around 97%, while Ciattarelli boasts a 92% approval from Republicans. Interestingly, 7% of Republicans are supporting Sherrill, whereas only 1% of Democrats are leaning towards Ciattarelli.
In terms of perceptions of honesty, more New Jerseyans find Sherrill trustworthy compared to Ciattarelli. She enjoys a positive perception with 56% viewing her as honest, while Ciattarelli stands at a negative rating of 47% for honesty.
The likability ratings for both candidates are closely aligned; Sherrill has a net positive rating of 9 points, while Ciattarelli has a 6-point negative rating. Nearly a third of voters hold an unfavorable opinion of both, though more are decidedly unfavorable towards Ciattarelli.
When it comes to key issues, voters trust Ciattarelli by 3 points on crime, but Sherrill leads in other important categories like living costs (+8), taxes (+9), energy costs (+10), and medical expenses (+16).
The candidates are competing for the seat left vacant by term-limited Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who narrowly won re-election against Ciattarelli in 2021.
Voter sentiment towards Murphy is mixed, with a close split: 49% view him favorably, while 48% do not. Opinions on Trump also show division; 44% hold a positive view, while 55% do not.
Interestingly, among those who view Trump favorably, 63% are enthusiastic about voting in this gubernatorial race. In contrast, only 39% of those with unfavorable views say the same. While around 16% of New Jersey voters cite support for Trump as a reason for their voting choice, a bigger portion—35%—indicate they are voting primarily to oppose him. Roughly half believe Trump isn’t influencing their decision.
Two-thirds of Sherrill’s supporters indicate they’re voting to express opposition to Trump, contrasting with a third of Ciattarelli supporters who say they are voting in support of him.
As Anderson noted, “New Jersey attracts attention every four years as we assess which way the political winds are shifting.” It’s uncertain how much the upcoming election might foreshadow future trends, but it’s evident that Sherrill’s backing stems significantly from those opposed to Trump, rather than solely from a desire to elect a governor.
The last time New Jersey maintained the same party in the governor’s office for three consecutive terms was in 1961.
