New Jersey Election Poll Insights
A recent survey conducted in New Jersey indicates that Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is in the lead over Democrat Miki Sherrill by 8 percentage points (50% to 42%) among voters. Among a larger sample of registered voters, the difference is 7 points (48% to 41%).
These candidates are vying for the position that will soon be vacated by Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who narrowly defeated Ciattarelli by just three points in the 2021 gubernatorial race.
According to the analysis of registered voters, Ciattarelli has garnered notable support from Black and Hispanic voters, as well as those with college degrees and voters under 45. There’s a gender gap where women favor Sherrill by 14 points, while men lean slightly towards Ciattarelli by one point.
Ciattarelli also pulls strong backing from MAGA supporters, white Catholics, and older voters. Interestingly, nearly all Democrats (89%) show support for Sherrill, while an equal number of Republicans (90%) favor Ciattarelli. The preferences among a smaller group of independents seem more divided. It’s worth noting that New Jersey leans Democratic in terms of registered voters.
Both candidates have strong voter engagement, with 84% of their supporters indicating they are likely to vote. However, about one in seven voters remains undecided and might change their minds before casting their ballots.
On the enthusiasm front, 50% of Ciattarelli’s supporters express a strong desire to vote, compared to 42% of Sherrill’s supporters. The poll was conducted following the first gubernatorial debate and the revelation that the National Archives mistakenly released unedited parts of Sherrill’s military files, which sparked criticism from her and other Democrats, while Ciattarelli’s campaign has been trying to leverage this issue.
In terms of public perception, 51% of respondents hold a favorable opinion of Sherrill compared to 45% for Ciattarelli. When it comes to being seen as honest and trustworthy, Sherrill is viewed as more credible, with 56% of voters saying so compared to 49% for Ciattarelli.
Governor Murphy’s approval rating sits at a slim margin of 47% to 48%. While more than half of voters express dissatisfaction with the state’s direction, 46% are satisfied—up from 37% back in 2017 at the time of his election.
Two major concerns among New Jersey voters dominate the discussion. A significant portion, 34%, cite taxes as the biggest issue facing the state, while 20% mention the cost of living. Other concerns, such as housing and energy costs, barely register at under 5%.
Among those prioritizing cost of living, Sherrill leads by 16 points, whereas tax-focused voters favor Ciattarelli by 5. Interestingly, while just 4% of Trump supporters see him as the state’s key problem, a third of them vote as a form of protest against him. Roughly 60% of Democrats say their vote is a means to oppose Trump, while more than half of Republicans (56%) claim he doesn’t influence their voting decision.
Overall, 42% of New Jersey voters view Trump positively, though 55% have a negative opinion of him, resulting in a 13-point net negative rating. This signifies an improvement since 2017 when his rating had dipped by 26 points. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, as the former vice president, secured a 52% favorability rating in New Jersey, compared to Trump’s 46% in last year’s presidential election, which is an increase from previous elections.
A striking finding from this poll reveals that many New Jersey voters believe recent Republican rhetoric has contributed to rising violence, whereas less than half (48%) feel the same way about Democrats.
The poll was conducted from September 25 to September 28, 2025, involving a sample of 1,002 registered voters selected randomly across the state. Respondents participated through various means, including live interviews and online surveys, with an expected margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
