Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf sharply decreased on Wednesday as tensions with Iran escalated, coinciding with indications that the United States may be mobilizing military forces for a potential strike, according to maritime intelligence reports.
As President Trump weighs military options, the U.S. Navy’s Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group entered U.S. Central Command’s area of operations on Monday, as confirmed by U.S. officials.
“Currently, the objectives of any potential U.S. military action remain somewhat unclear, perhaps by design,” noted Robert Peters from Ambly Intelligence. “This suggests that a variety of retaliation scenarios are being contemplated.”
On another note, President Trump recently announced imposing ‘final’ 25% tariffs on nations engaging in trade with Iran.
Despite the rising tensions, there are still five U.S.-flagged vessels in the Gulf, including two that had previously traversed the Strait of Hormuz without incident. However, those already in the region—and specifically heading to the U.S.—are now considered to be at increased risk, Peters cautioned.
Earlier this week, Trump mentioned on social media that he had received numerous calls from Iranian officials and described a large naval armada headed toward Iran. He emphasized that the fleet, led by the Abraham Lincoln, is actually larger than one previously sent to Venezuela.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warned that any American military action will prompt swift retaliation, claiming it will mark the onset of war and target potential aggressors directly.
Peters recommended that shipping companies should minimize risks when operating in the Gulf, suggesting a reduction in the number of vessels in the area to limit exposure to any hostile actions. He also indicated that vessels might need to remain at a nearby port for safety until the situation stabilizes.
In an alarming statement, Ali Shamkhani, an advisor to Khamenei, claimed that any military venture by the U.S. would trigger a robust response that could reach deep into Israel.
Additionally, the death toll from ongoing protests in Iran has surpassed 6,200, with the Human Rights Activist News Agency reporting that nearly 17,100 others are currently under investigation. The Iranian government continues to push back against accusations that they have halted executions of protesters.
Peters further mentioned that shipping companies are being approached by charterers looking to load cargo in the Gulf, although many are contemplating holding off until tensions ease. Interestingly, last year saw Iran refraining from retaliatory actions in maritime activities, even while Israeli vessels avoided the Gulf region.
Discussions around risks of broader instability in the region have become more prevalent as the dynamics evolve. Increased caution is expected among U.S. charterers and cargo operators amid the rising military backdrop.
