Tax Refund Expectations for 2026
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent recently indicated that American families can look forward to “very large refunds” when they file taxes early next year. This comes as a result of new policies introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
In a discussion on NBC10 Philadelphia, Bessent highlighted how the OBBBA legislation could significantly benefit taxpayers, possibly leading to substantial refunds. He stated that the tax law features retroactive elements that affect the amount owed on this year’s income, which in turn could boost the refunds many will receive.
Bessent noted, “The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their tax withholdings, so they’re going to get a very large refund in the first quarter.” He estimated that refunds could total between $100 billion and $150 billion, translating to potentially $1,000 to $2,000 per household. It’s a bit much, maybe? But who wouldn’t appreciate a little extra cash?
Furthermore, he suggested that as withholding updates happen and wages adjust upward in real terms, 2026 could be a particularly favorable year for taxpayers.
Bessent’s comments arrive amid ongoing efforts from the Trump administration to enhance affordability for Americans, with tax relief under OBBBA being a key focus. Earlier this month, President Trump mentioned at a Cabinet meeting that the upcoming tax season is anticipated to be the “largest tax refund season in history.”
It’s worth noting that along with introducing new tax breaks, OBBBA has extended the tax rate cuts and increased standard deductions from the 2017 revisions under the Trump administration. However, there’s a catch, as these tax reductions will expire at the end of this year, leading to potential tax hikes in 2026.
A recent Fox News poll indicated that many voters are concerned about the economy, particularly due to rising food and housing costs. It’s possible that larger tax refunds might provide some financial relief to households struggling with these expenses.
As of early October, the IRS reported issuing over $311 billion in refunds for the 2025 tax season, with over 102 million refunds already distributed. This might help ease some financial burdens, especially as the average refund amount has settled around $3,052.
