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Six Unresolved Issues for Iran After Khamenei

Six Unresolved Issues for Iran After Khamenei

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Confirmed Dead Amid U.S. and Israeli Airstrikes

On Saturday night, President Donald Trump announced the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, due to a bombing campaign conducted by the U.S. and Israel targeting Tehran over the weekend.

The Pentagon initiated what it dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” on Saturday. This operation aimed to undermine Iran’s ability to participate in terrorism, particularly against U.S. interests. According to the Central Command (CENTCOM), the objective was to dismantle the Iranian regime’s security structure, focusing on locations that presented imminent threats.

As stated by CENTCOM, bombing targets included facilities related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ command and control, air defense systems, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields.

This military action followed weeks of stalled negotiations with Iranian officials, wherein Tehran requested the U.S. to relax sanctions while the U.S. sought to persuade Iran to halt its nuclear program. Although talks had been described as constructive, specific concessions by Iran remained vague.

In announcing Khamenei’s death on his platform, Truth Social, Trump cautioned that significant bombing efforts would persist throughout the week as needed to achieve global peace.

Khamenei had been in power since 1989, succeeding the revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini. His death has thrown Iran into uncertainty, raising many questions about the future direction of the country. As of Saturday night, here are five pressing questions, the answers to which could significantly impact the success of Trump’s foreign policy.

1) Who is in charge of Iran now?

Khamenei’s title of “Supreme Leader” indicated his dominance in Iranian governance, despite the presence of a ruling clerical council and a nominal president, Massoud Pezeshkian. With Khamenei’s death, there is uncertainty about who will make key decisions. Although Iranian state media suggested that President Pezeshkian could still perform some duties, he hasn’t made any public statements, and his current authority remains unclear. Compounding the problem, several high-ranking officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were reportedly killed during the attacks.

2) What is the remaining strength of the IRGC?

The Revolutionary Guards are considered Iran’s most formidable military force. They have historically played a pivotal role in coordinating various foreign militant groups and executing major terrorist operations. Without the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s military might struggle to remain effective. The recent strikes have reportedly eliminated several senior IRGC officials, further complicating their operational integrity.

3) Can ordinary Iranians instigate systemic change?

The response from the Iranian populace following Khamenei’s death may determine the future of the regime. President Trump articulated that this could be an opportunity for the Iranian people to reclaim their country. While there were reports of celebrations in Tehran, the stability of the uprising against the regime remains uncertain.

4) What happens if the regime collapses?

In the absence of a well-defined opposition, identifying a successor to lead Iran is complicated. While figures like Reza Pahlavi and Maryam Rajavi have been suggested as potential leaders, the violent repression of dissent complicates gauging public support for them. Trump suggested he knew who could fill the leadership void but did not disclose any names.

5) What will BRICS’ response be?

Iran, a member of BRICS—among other countries like China and Russia—faces scrutiny in the aftermath of the attacks. While China condemned Operation Epic Fury, its actions to stabilize Iran have been minimal. Iran remains critical in supplying resources to Russia as they intervene in Ukraine, but any potential retaliation could further complicate relations with the U.S.

6) How will the Islamic world react?

The reaction of influential Islamic nations to the airstrikes remains pivotal. Countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia could perceive the attack as a broader threat. The dynamic is further complicated by Iran’s recent military actions against neighboring countries, which jeopardize its regional support. The next week will likely offer clarity on the potential survival of the Iranian regime.

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