The Social Security Trust Fund, which supports benefits for approximately 70 million Americans, is nearing depletion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently reported that the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is expected to run out by 2032—this is actually a year earlier than previous estimates, which pointed to 2033.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has noted that once the fund is depleted, Social Security recipients could see their monthly benefits cut by an average of 28%. They previously estimated that a typical married couple retiring just after bankruptcy would face a loss of about $18,400 in benefits per year.
“Social Security has been on this troubling path for quite a while, but recent political actions have made the situation worse,” said the CRFB in its report.
What changes the outlook for Social Security?
According to the CRFB, new legislation tied to a tax and spending bill signed last year by President Donald Trump is set to reduce revenue for the Trust Fund.
The report highlights that the “One Big Beautiful Building Act” has decreased income flowing into the Social Security Trust Fund, mainly by lowering income tax rates for seniors.
Social Security Chief Actuary Karen Glenn estimates this new law will cost the program around $168.6 billion over the next decade. In fact, a letter addressing these concerns was presented to Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who is the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee.
Moreover, the bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act that passed in January 2025 is already causing additional strain. This legislation eliminated two long-standing provisions that had previously reduced benefits for some retirees who also received pension income.
As a result, this law has further exacerbated the Social Security deficit, which the CRFB estimates will exceed $200 billion over the next ten years.
The CRFB points out that a combination of these new laws, along with various economic and demographic shifts, as well as years of inaction by policymakers, has led to an increase in the program’s 75-year deficit.
Can the government save Social Security from benefit cuts?
Congress holds the power to pass laws that could protect Social Security, but it seems, well, unlikely. The American Academy of Actuaries has underscored the necessity for Congress to address this issue promptly, warning that delays may result in fewer options down the line, primarily relying on tax increases, which won’t make things easier.
Some proposed solutions include extending payroll taxes to higher income levels and increasing the normal retirement age, according to the academy.
“But honestly, it all comes down to political will,” stated the CRFB. “Lawmakers need to communicate openly with the public about the challenges facing this system, and what must be done to ensure full benefit payments… Time is definitely of the essence.”
