New Polling Shows Democratic Primary Tightening in NYC

Recent polling from Emerson College indicates that Zohran Mamdani, a socialist candidate and Democratic State Representative, is gaining ground over former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the lead-up to New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary.

At just 33 years old, Mamdani, who is originally from Uganda and identifies as a democratic socialist, has made significant strides in the polling numbers released on Monday. In this particular poll, which considers the city’s ranked choice voting system, Mamdani and Cuomo are in a tight race.

Cuomo is currently favored by 35% of respondents, while Mamdani is close behind at 32%. This gives Cuomo a slight edge of three points. However, since no candidate has secured the required 50% of votes for a clear win, the ranked choice system comes into play, projecting Mamdani to achieve a 52% victory against Cuomo’s 48% in a simulated final round.

“In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll,” noted Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” he added.

Mamdani’s campaign is centered around a promise to freeze rents for over two million New Yorkers living in rent-stabilized apartments, a proposal that has sparked considerable debate.

Critics warn that such a freeze could deter landlords from investing in necessary repairs or upgrades, ultimately leading to deteriorating living conditions. They also argue it may halt the development of new housing, as developers anticipate future rent freezes. A 2019 study from Stanford University, titled “The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco,” found that rent control often reduces the supply of available affordable housing. It reported that tenants in rent-controlled properties were 20% more likely to remain in their homes, exacerbating the housing shortage and leading to increased rents citywide.

Meanwhile, the Cuomo campaign has downplayed these polling results, asserting: “This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow.”

“Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as Mayor,” added Cuomo campaign spokesperson Rich Azzopardi.

Mamdani has garnered support from prominent figures like Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders, while Cuomo is backed by notable endorsers such as Bill Clinton, former NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, and Rep. Jim Clyburn.

The Democratic primary in New York City is scheduled for June 24, with early voting starting on June 14. The general election will occur in early November.