Choo Hyun-hwan, vice-chairman of South Korea's Presidential Committee on Aging Society and Population Policy, said on Monday that the country's birth rate is expected to rise slightly when 2024 data is fully compiled.
Even if Joo's predictions of improvement are minimal, this is welcome news for South Korea, which has suffered some of the world's worst population declines.
“If the recent increases in the number of marriages and births continue, this year's birthrate is expected to be around 0.74, which will exceed the National Statistical Office's initial long-term forecast of 0.68 and last year's 0.72,” Chu said. Ta. said on monday.
If this prediction holds true, first increase South Korea's birth rate has increased for nine years, marking the largest increase in 14 years. According to the National Statistics Agency of Japan, the number of births exceeded 20,000 in September 2024 for the third consecutive month.
With a birth rate of 0.74 children per woman still far short of the 2.1 birth rate needed for population stability, let alone growth, South Korean authorities are struggling to understand exactly how this baby bump was achieved. He is very enthusiastic about this.
Joo urged business leaders to transform South Korea's workplace culture and foster demographic growth by implementing more family-friendly policies. Otherwise, there may not be enough young workers to quickly run companies.
“We are moving beyond mere discrepancies in the labor market to a new normal of labor shortages. It's time for businesses to establish new survival strategies for themselves,” Zhu said.
Zhu also believes that the increase in the number of marriages in recent years is bringing more children into the world. Some observers have warned that this surge in marriages is largely a result of the post-pandemic euphoria, which could quickly wane.
Like other developed countries facing a population crisis, South Korea has sought to reduce the costs of childbirth and childcare by offering a $750 cash allowance for newborns, increased parental leave, and tax breaks for businesses that create “families.” Various government subsidies have been introduced. Friendly work culture. ”
None of these were enough to reverse the decline, but perhaps the real “costs” preventing young Koreans from starting families are not just the high costs of childbirth and childcare. Perhaps it's the huge opportunity cost of putting career and personal goals aside. Become a mother, be a father, and especially be a mother.
The precipitous collapse of South Korea's birth rate in the new millennium has sparked a lively debate about why and how other countries can avoid a similar fate. One frequently cited factor is the rise of a radical left-wing feminist movement in South Korea. known “4B” took shape about 10 years ago. Some pinpoint the birth of this movement as follows: gangnam murder case In 2016, a man stabbed a woman to death after she ignored him.
“Bi” is the Korean word for firm refusal, and the movement's name refers to the “four nos,” specifically, “no relationships, no marriage, no sex, and no children.”
4B is an expression of angry, radical feminism and a mirror image of the “incel” phenomenon among Western youth. Some of its supporters believe that by denying sex, as in classic Greek comedy, it sends a message to male-dominated business and political systems. Lystrata, There, women went on a “sex strike” to try to end the Peloponnesian War.
Although there aren't many women who profess to be followers of the 4Bs, they have had a huge impact on Korean culture, which is filled with confused and unhappy young people. While some believe the rise of the 4Bs has exacerbated the demographic crisis by turning young women away from dating and marriage, women feel unfairly blamed for the demise of the next generation. Some see this as a response to demographic collapse.
The 4B movement became so influential that it attracted the attention of women in other countries, including the United States.
Recently CNN claimed After President Donald Trump's election, there was a surge in interest in 4B among “young liberal women via TikTok and Instagram,” but the report provides only anecdotal evidence for this claim, stating that online It's much easier to talk about militant celibacy than it is in reality. doing it that.
“I've been waiting for this to happen. It took 8 years for it to reach you!” Min-Kyung Lee, Korean feminist writer and 4B pioneer said She gained new American followers on Monday.
No matter how many women fully participate in movements like 4B, or how many young men cut off dating women in similar ways, the cold, hard biological truth is that the population remains stable. This means that young people need to start having children at a certain age. Because of their young age, a significant number of couples must have two or more children to reach the developmental threshold.
Cultural trends that make young people less likely to accept such huge commitments are bound to have a negative impact, especially on upwardly mobile and career-oriented young people who already have difficulty accepting such commitments.
