Soybean Market Update
Monday saw soybean prices rise by 5 to 14 cents. In contrast, futures had a rough Friday, with prices decreasing by 17 to 22 cents. Even so, January futures ended the week up by 7.5 cents. Interestingly, provisional open interest rose by 14,755 contracts on Friday, signaling some new selling activity. The national average cash price for soybeans fell by 22.75 cents to $10.50. Additionally, soybean meal futures decreased by $1.40, landing at $6, though this is still a recovery from last December’s $5.40. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures slipped by 2 to 10 points but managed a weekly increase of 47 points.
The USDA revealed a significant unreported sales balance from the shutdown, totaling 1.348 million metric tons (MMT). Of this, only 332,000 tons were bought by China, while another 616,000 tons had an unspecified destination. Additionally, the Philippines purchased 237,500 tons of soybean meal. It’s worth noting that actual weekly data won’t be released until January 2nd. President Trump suggested on Friday night that China is increasing its purchases of U.S. soybeans, with expectations for this trend to pick up by spring.
Crop production numbers released on Friday indicated that U.S. soybean yields were 0.5 bushels per acre (bpa) lower than the 53 bpa reported in September. This led to a production decrease of 48 million bushels (mbu), bringing the total to 4.253 billion bushels (bbu). The September grain stocks report showed carryover from 2024/25 at 316 mbu, which is down 14 mbu from the last update. When factoring in production, total supply decreases by 61 mbu to 2.59 bbu. On the demand front, exports fell by 50 mbu, resulting in an ending inventory drop of 10 mbu to 290 mbu.
Globally, Brazil experienced a rise in domestic used car sales and increased exports. In Argentina, a boost in exports helped offset a decrease, leading to a reduction in end-of-period inventories by 2 MMT to 121.99 MMT.
Traders are awaiting NOPA data today, which is predicted to show October’s crush at 209.52 mbu, with estimates varying from 197.4 to 223.5 mbu. Soybean oil inventories are projected to rise to 1.257 billion pounds, up from 1.243 billion pounds at September’s end.
As of Thursday, Brazil’s soybean planting was at an estimated 71%, which is behind last year’s rate of 80% for the same week, according to Agraral.
On November 25th, November soybeans closed down 19.25 cents at $11.12. Cash prices fell 22.75 cents to $10.50. January soybeans ended 22.5 cents lower at $11.24, but are now up 14 cents. March soybeans closed down 20.75 cents at $11.36, though they are up 11 cents currently.
