A significant disruption has shaken the copper market due to the potential imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump.
On Tuesday, copper prices surged, nearing record highs. Today, I’m taking a closer look at leading copper companies like Freeport-McMoran (FCX) and Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO).
Wall Street’s initial responses have varied:
Goldman Sachs’ Eoin Dinsmore
“With the heightened risk of this 50% tariff, we anticipate an increase in freight heading to the US in the upcoming weeks. As front-run tariffs are being tightened, the December 2025 Comex-LME arbitration is currently pricing at $3,000 per ton. While copper tariffs are currently at 50%, they’ve reverted to 25% before. However, following June’s increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, the market is now grappling with the uncertainty of possible future exemptions.”
Christopher Rafemina from Jefferies
“Trump’s announcement regarding the 50% tariff on copper imports caught many off guard, both in terms of timing and magnitude. Yet, it’s likely that such tariffs were on the horizon. The increase in domestic copper prices could stimulate investments in mining and new refineries. I suspect the long-term goal of the Trump administration is to make the US self-sufficient, with less reliance on mining. From a smelting and refining perspective, this could speed things up, while also allowing China to enter the copper supply chain, similar to the steel tariffs introduced by Trump back in 2018.”
