Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely stalled, even with a U.S.-backed ceasefire dependent on reopening this crucial waterway. This situation raises concerns about whether Iran is genuinely honoring the main conditions of the truce.
Currently, around 3,200 ships, including 800 tankers and cargo vessels, are stuck on the western side of the strait. They’re anchored there, waiting for some indication of safety before attempting to navigate through.
Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, noted that no oil tankers have entered the strait in recent days. “We don’t see any petroleum products passing through there,” he remarked. “So by all accounts, the strait remains closed. This gives Iran leverage.”
On Thursday, three ships, including two flagged under Iran and one bulk carrier, made it through. However, President Trump expressed frustration, stating that Iran is mishandling the situation, implying, “That’s not our deal!”
The International Maritime Organization has reported that nearly 20,000 seafarers remain effectively stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the ongoing crisis.
Additionally, maritime data indicated that one Sri Lankan-flagged vessel and four bulk carriers registered in other nations—all managed to transit the strait on Wednesday. Strikingly, some vessels chose unusual routes near Iran’s Larak Island instead of the traditional commercial paths, with others even turning off their tracking systems during their passage.
As a result, cargo shipments are increasingly being rerouted through ports in Oman and along the east coast of the UAE, resulting in longer voyages of about two weeks and a cost increase of roughly 25%.
Even though the ceasefire is in place, it primarily hinges on Iran agreeing to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. Interestingly, there’s a notable discrepancy between the official ceasefire agreement and the practical realities on the ground. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply typically flows through this strait, yet analysts suggest that shipping firms are more risk-averse than governments. This imbalance means that a fragile ceasefire alone may not be enough to incentivize vessels back to that region.
Smith explained, “We don’t know if landmines have been placed in the Strait of Hormuz. Even if they haven’t, the threat of missile or drone strikes is significant enough to keep operators hesitant. Nobody wants to take that risk.” He also added that insurance issues further complicate the situation for ships trying to transit, leading to heightened premiums and restrictions that dissuade many from entering the channel.
Meanwhile, Sultan Al Jaber from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company expressed concerns on LinkedIn, stating, “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is limited, conditioned, and controlled.” He pointed out that Iran has made its stance clear: passage through the strait requires permissions that are tied to political factors.
In the latest developments, Iran is reportedly requesting to pay a toll fee for each barrel of oil onboard, suggesting a transition to cryptocurrency payments, per the Financial Times. Iranian state media reported that Iran continues to restrict passage in reaction to ongoing Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, though U.S. officials maintain this is not part of the ceasefire conditions.
Notably, both Vice President J.D. Vance and President Trump have indicated that Israel is likely to lower its attacks in Lebanon to facilitate a more successful ceasefire.
Despite the ongoing tensions, a U.S.-Iranian summit is set for Saturday in Pakistan, aimed at securing a more permanent ceasefire.
