Study: Homicide Rate Set to Reach Lowest Level in 126 Years, 8 Cities Go Against the Trend

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On Thursday, the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) reported an 18% decrease in homicides in major U.S. cities during the first half of 2026, marking the lowest homicide rate seen since at least 1900. However, eight cities experienced increases in their murder counts.

The CCJ’s analysis examined data from 36 cities, revealing that there were 215 fewer homicides compared to the same period last year. This historically low figure will be further validated by national FBI statistics expected later this year.

According to CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb, this downward trend in homicides transcends political affiliations and policy approaches.

“Cities with various political leadership, socioeconomic conditions, law enforcement methods, and violence reduction strategies have all seen reductions in homicide and crime rates,” Gelb noted.

Notably, Norfolk, Virginia, experienced a sharp 64% rise, while other cities like San Francisco, Dallas, and Salt Lake City saw increases of 55%, 30%, and 20%, respectively. Austin reported a 9% rise, and both Denver and Chicago, along with Charlotte, North Carolina, each recorded a 3% uptick.

Some police departments challenged these statistics.

According to a spokesperson for the Dallas Police Department, CBS News reported that the department’s “official crime data does not support the claim of a 30% increase in homicides during the same period.”

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San Francisco Police Department spokesperson Evan Cernofsky mentioned that 16 homicides were recorded this year, compared to 13 in the same timeframe of 2025. He indicated that while the city has seen some closures of police stations, the homicide rate remains at its lowest in over seven decades.

“While there has been a slight rise in homicides compared to last year, every murder is one too many. The SFPD will keep focusing on these crimes,” Cernofsky expressed.

Austin’s numbers also revealed a dramatic 74% increase compared to 2019, the highest of any city surveyed. Police in Austin claimed this surge was unprecedented.

Earlier, Norfolk’s police chief Mark Talbott stated that his city’s homicide rate for 2025 would be the lowest in 40 years, attributing the decline to enhanced staffing and new technology. The department did not respond to CBS News regarding the latest data.

It’s worth noting that the data is collected immediately after each reporting cycle and can often vary from the official figures published later.

In Lincoln, Nebraska, there were six homicides in the first half of last year but none this year. Meanwhile, Rochester, New York, saw a 76% drop, and Little Rock, Arkansas, had a 61% decrease.

New York City conducted its own analysis, recording 122 murders through June, down from 162 during the same period last year, marking the city’s lowest first-half homicide count.

Report co-author Ernesto Lopez noted that the study does not connect the decline in Washington to President Donald Trump’s deployment of the National Guard.

“Significant reductions in homicides were also seen in cities that did not experience National Guard deployments,” Lopez pointed out.

In February, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt attributed the CCJ’s preliminary findings to border security efforts and federal law enforcement, suggesting these figures reflect the administration’s success in securing the border.

“This report doesn’t definitively establish the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of any given policy,” Lopez and co-author Bobby Boxerman concluded.

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