James Madison, in just its second year in the Sun Belt, is playing in the conference championship game on Monday night with a chance to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The Dukes are the only team in Division I with 30 wins and currently have the longest winning streak at 12 games. Their last loss came on Jan. 27 against Appalachian State, which won the regular season title.
But the Dukes won’t have a chance for revenge, as the Arkansas State Red Solves defeated top-seeded App State on a buzzer-beating shot to win 67-65 in the Sun Belt semifinals on Sunday.
The Sun Belt championship is now down to two teams: No. 4 Arkansas State and No. 2 James Madison.
The Dukes opened as a 7-point favorite, but that number has already dropped to -5.5 at most sportsbooks.
The Red Wolves are certainly the trending “dogs,” but their upset win over Appalachian State should keep them wary of the Dukes, especially in the first half.
Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds
| spread | total | money line |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas + 5.5 (-110) | 150.5 or more (-105) | Arkansas +190 |
| James Madison -5.5 (-110) | Less than 150.5 (-115) | James Madison -235 |
arkansas analysis
It’s easy to see why the market likes Arkansas in this area. He is one of the most profitable teams for bettors, as evidenced by his 19-10-1 mark against the spread (ATS). Action Lab Database.
But this team is still a very flawed team, especially defensively. The Red Wolves rank 243rd in Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Index, allowing 110 points per 100 possessions.
They play a very unique style and are more willing to give up scoring chances in the paint than behind the perimeter.
According to Haslametrics.com, Arkansas State ranks 289th in opponent near-proximity field goal attempts (layups, tip-ins, dunks) at 33.37 attempts per 100 attempts. ing.
The Red Wolves’ goal is to outscore their opponents from the perimeter. They rank 20th in 3-point shots with 9.5 per game, according to TeamRankings.
James Madison defeated Arkansas State 42-30 in the paint in the first matchup. The Red Wolves made nine 3-point field goals and the Dukes only six, but they attempted 30 compared to James Madison’s 18.
As a result, the Red Wolves tend to have a significant amount of empty possessions when looking for three-point shots.
James Madison Analysis
Don’t get me wrong, James Madison is the more balanced of the two teams. The great thing about Dukes is his ability to take quality shots.
The Dukes aren’t that far behind Arkansas State in terms of 3-point shooting. They take 8.6 3-pointers per game, which ranks 59th in the country.
But James Madison isn’t as reliant on 3-point shots as the Red Wolves, considering the Dukes rank 34th in near-proximity attempts at 35.44 shots per 100.
So if they can establish an advantage in the paint, they will likely avoid wasting possessions.
Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency margin puts James Madison about 8 points better than Arkansas State. This number appears to match the starting number before the bet is placed.
At times, Arkansas State plays a little desperate, which results in a ton of 3-point shots. That makes the Red Wolves especially dangerous as potential backdoor cover.
To prevent this, playing James Madison in the first half makes the most sense here.
Arkansas State vs. James Madison pick
One of the key elements of my handicap is the Haslametrics consistency measurement. This looks at how well a team performs compared to expected offensive and defensive efficiency.
James Madison ranks 22nd in the division, while Arkansas State ranks 344th.
The second half of a college basketball game can be somewhat unpredictable if teams abandon their game plan and start taking 3-point shots.
Point spreads don’t always capture this change in strategy, which may explain why the Red Wolves have such an impressive ATS mark.
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If you look at Arkansas State’s first half performance as an underdog, they are 5-9 ATS despite having an 8-5-1 ATS mark overall for the game.
These numbers confirm my belief that the Red Wolves often chase games hopelessly in the second half.
With the full-game point spread down to 5.5, I prefer to take advantage of a more consistent team in the first half and back James Madison as a 2.5-point favorite.
Pick: James Madison 1H -2.5 (-115, DraftKings)
