Super Bowl 2024 MVP odds, prediction: Bet on Christian McCaffrey

After the 2024 Super Bowl, before confetti falls on the lawn at Allegiant Stadium Bermuda, 16 writers and broadcasters will vote for the game’s MVP.

This represents 80 percent of the total votes, so this select group will essentially decide how the majority of the billions of dollars wagered on Super Bowl 58 will change. It will be.

Of the 23 winners since 2001, when the NFL gave fans a 20% say, 14 were quarterbacks (60.9%), five were wide receivers (21.8%), and the remaining four were defensemen. served (17.4%).

This year there’s an oddity in that Patrick Mahomes is listed with the shortest odds (+120, BetMGM), even though the 49ers are currently 1.5-point favorites to win. Brock Purdy is in second place with odds of +220.

So if you’re betting on Mahomes, you’re betting on the Chiefs pulling off a small upset (or the NFL watching Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift midfield after the Kansas City win). (I’m a conspiracy theorist who believes it’s already been written.)

And if you were betting on Purdy, you’d imagine him throwing for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in a win, but he’s only done that four times in 18 games this season.

From our perspective, Christian McCaffrey is not only the best value at +450 odds, but he’s also the logical choice for a player on a team expected to win.

He has four touchdowns in the playoffs and 25 in 18 games.

On Sunday, the Chiefs held the Ravens to 81 rushing yards, but Baltimore fell behind early and was forced to pass in the second half.

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A week ago, the Chiefs allowed Buffalo 180 rushing yards and nearly 5 yards per carry. This was a typical performance during the regular season (27th in rushing defense DVOA, 28th in EPA per rush).

Equally impactful on the ground and in the air, McCaffrey can defeat opponents in a variety of ways, giving him two paths to MVP.

The Play: Christian McCaffrey wins Super Bowl MVP (+450, BetMGM).