Brazilian Election Polls Show Tight Race
A recent survey in Brazil conducted by AtlasIntel, for Bloomberg, indicates that conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holds a slight edge over the incumbent socialist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. However, with just over two weeks to go before the initial round of the presidential election, the two candidates are still viewed as “technically tied.”
The general election is set for October 4, where voters will choose their next president, state governors, and new members for the regional legislatures. With 13 candidates on the presidential ballot, it’s anticipated that no one will secure the necessary majority to win outright in the first round.
Consequently, polling experts expect that the election will culminate in a late October runoff between President Lula of the Workers’ Party and Senator Bolsonaro from the Liberal Party.
On Thursday, various Brazilian news outlets released findings from the latest AtlasIntel survey, which presented multiple potential runoff scenarios. In a direct matchup, 47.2 percent of respondents indicated they would support Bolsonaro, while 46.8 percent favored Lula. Although this shows Bolsonaro in the lead by a mere 0.4 percent, it falls within the margin of error, reinforcing the idea that the candidates are nearly even, similar to results from other polls in recent weeks.
It’s worth noting that around six percent of those surveyed indicated they would either leave their votes blank or were unsure how to respond. When excluding these answers from the tally, Bolsonaro stands at 50.2 percent compared to Lula’s 49.8 percent.
AtlasIntel also explored scenarios featuring Lula against four other presidential hopefuls. In those cases, Lula is projected to outperform all non-Bolsonaro candidates by margins ranging from three to 16 percent, depending on the rival.
While the AtlasIntel poll suggests a technical tie, it seems to indicate a slight movement in favor of Bolsonaro over Lula, as the conservative senator has been progressively closing the gap. Earlier polls conducted before and after the campaign started indicated Lula had a notable lead of over 6.5 percent in a hypothetical runoff against Bolsonaro.
The recent findings highlight that Lula’s earlier advantage has diminished, attributed in part to Brazil’s economic difficulties and the emergence of corruption allegations involving his son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva. There’s also the ongoing turmoil within the Brazilian Supreme Court, which has created a perception of judicial instability. Interestingly, about half of the respondents believe this situation may impact Lula more adversely than Bolsonaro in the upcoming polls.
Amidst all this, Lula commented on the polling dilemma in a podcast, seemingly dismissing the significance of the survey results showing his approaching contender. He claimed he wasn’t motivated by polls and noted he couldn’t fathom a scenario in which they wouldn’t win the elections.
Currently, Lula is vying for a fourth term, having narrowly defeated former President Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. Meanwhile, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, has stepped into the race following his father’s ban from office and subsequent conviction on charges many deem unfair.
