Polling Indicates Tight Race in Georgia Senate Contest
Recent polling reveals that Republican Representative Mike Collins is gaining ground on incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in the closely watched Georgia Senate race.
A survey by Quantus Insights indicates that Ossoff is currently leading Collins—who has received endorsements from Trump—by a slim margin of 48.2% to 44.4%. When factoring in voters leaning toward a candidate, Ossoff’s lead is slightly broader at 49.0% to 44.9%. Both of these figures fall within the survey’s margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points.
Comparatively, this race appears to be much more competitive than findings from other recent polls. For instance, RealClearPolitics has reported an average lead for Ossoff of about eight points in what they describe as a “toss-up” election.
Collins’ spokesperson, Meyer Siegfried, expressed to Breitbart News that “Jon Ossoff’s toxic far-left record is being exposed, and this race is tightening every day.” He further stated that Georgians are turning away from Ossoff due to his alignment with the more radical elements of his party, favoring Collins’ practical approach focused on tax cuts and cost reductions.
The race is characterized as “competitive” and will likely reflect sharp variations based on gender, race, age, and geography, according to the pollster. Additionally, there’s a notable group of undecided voters, with 5.2% undecided when considering leaners and 6.5% without them.
The polling data shows that Ossoff holds a significant lead among women (54% to 37%) and Black voters (82% to 10%). In contrast, Collins leads among men (52% to 42%) and white voters (61% to 31%).
Quantus noted that “these opposing margins illustrate how closely the statewide balance depends on the composition of the electorate and each campaign’s ability to bring its supporters to the polls.”
Interestingly, age demographics reveal distinct preferences: Ossoff leads 58% to 29% among the 18–29 age group and 53% to 37% among those aged 30–44. The race narrows to a slim margin of 48% to 45% in favor of Ossoff among voters aged 45–64, while Collins holds a strong lead (55% to 41%) among voters 65 and older. It’s worth noting that younger age groups have smaller sample sizes, so those results should be interpreted with some caution.
Both candidates enjoy strong backing from their respective parties, with over 90% support. Ossoff has an advantage with independent voters (42% to 29%), but about 26% remain undecided, indicating that this demographic could play a crucial role.
Both candidates have favorable ratings, but Ossoff is better known, with only 2.8% of voters unfamiliar with him. In contrast, 14.3% do not know Collins.
“More voters have yet to form an opinion of Collins, giving his campaign an opportunity to promote him while also allowing those impressions to be swayed by his opponent,” the poll report highlighted.
Currently, Ossoff’s advantages with women, Black voters, and residents of Atlanta place him in the lead, while Collins’ support among men, white voters, older populations, and rural areas keeps the competition alive. The key question remains whether Ossoff can solidify his narrow advantage to gain majority support or if Collins can effectively narrow the gap with undecided voters.
This Georgia Senate race is anticipated to be highly competitive and may influence which party controls the Senate during the latter half of President Trump’s second term. Ossoff has been labeled as one of the “most vulnerable” Democrats seeking reelection, yet he is also thought to have presidential ambitions for 2028. Meanwhile, Collins, who represents Georgia’s 10th congressional district and owns a trucking business, has achieved early career successes, including the signing of the Laken Riley Act by President Trump.
The Quantus Insights poll surveyed 645 likely voters between September 14 and 16, with a margin of error of approximately ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
