Democratic Primary Polls Show Shifts in NYC Mayoral Race
A recent poll released on Monday highlights a significant development in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Left-handed candidate Zohran Mamdani has surpassed former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the early stages of ranked choice voting.
Currently, Cuomo holds a narrow lead of just 3 percentage points, attracting 32% of Democratic voters, while Mamdani has also garnered 32%. Other candidates like Mayor Bloodlander are trailing, receiving 13% support, according to the Emerson College Polling/PIX 11/The Hill Survey.
City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams remains close to other candidates, sharing between 3% and 5% of the vote with Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos, and Michael Blake. An additional 4% of voters are still undecided.
Since no candidate has achieved the required 50% of the votes for a definitive win, a ranked selection system will be initiated. This allows voters to continue counting their second choices even if their preferred candidate is eliminated in successive rounds.
In a simulated ranking exercise, Mamdani pulls ahead of Cuomo in the eighth round, achieving 51.8% compared to Cuomo’s 48.2% in the latest poll conducted from June 18-20.
“Mamdani’s support has really surged from just 1% to 32% over the last five months, while Cuomo remains at his starting point,” noted Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling.
During the ranked selection simulation, Mamdani amassed 18 points against Cuomo’s 12. This marks a notable shift in momentum for Mamdani, especially since in a previous Emerson poll last month, Cuomo led by 12 points.
Cuomo’s earlier advantage was evident, as he finished ahead of Mamdani by 8 points in the 10th round of the previous ranking vote – 54% to 46%.
Supporters of Mamdani are feeling optimistic about the recent changes in the polls.
In the seventh round, Cuomo led with 40.5% compared to Mamdani’s 39.4%, particularly after Bloodlander was eliminated from contention.
Most voters from Bloodlander appear to prefer Mamdani over Cuomo in the following round, boosting Mamdani’s percentages by 3.6 points.
Additionally, Lander has indicated a preference for Mamdani if he himself cannot secure a victory. Progressive workers’ families have also encouraged voters not to rank Cuomo in their selections.
While some other polls, like those from Marist University, show Cuomo still holding onto a lead, Mamdani is closing the gap.
According to the Emerson College poll, voters who have already cast their ballots during early voting appear to favor Mamdani by 41% to Cuomo’s 31%, giving Mamdani a ten-point advantage.
Insights from the NYC Mayoral Race Polls
Cuomo currently maintains a lead of 36% to 31% among those planning to vote on the upcoming Tuesday.
A closer look reveals significant demographic differences in support. For instance, while younger voters under 50 back Mamdani by a 2-to-1 margin, Cuomo leads among those aged 50 and up—63% to 37% for voters between 50-59 and 56% to 44% among those over 60.
Cuomo draws nearly 62% of support from Black voters compared to Mamdani’s 38%, along with 60% from Hispanic voters versus Mamdani’s 40%. However, Mamdani does hold a lead among white voters—61% to 39%—and a much larger advantage among Asian voters, at 79% to 21%.
Cuomo also shows better traction among voters without a four-year university degree, leading 61% to 39%, while Mamdani captures 62% of college-educated voters.
Support from men is leaning toward Mamdani by 56% to 44%, while women are slightly favoring Cuomo, with a split of 52% to 48%.
The latest ranked choice voting may present a margin of fluctuation around 3.6 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by Emerson College using a combination of mobile texts, online panels, and landline robocalls, showcasing the changing landscape of the mayoral race as the Democratic primary approaches.
