New poll results from seven states likely to be close in November are good news for those hoping for a second term for Donald Trump.
Polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin show Trump on track to surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win, if those numbers hold up at the ballot box. , Trump will be given multiple paths back to the White House. .
Emerson College estimates show Trump winning four of those states, albeit by a narrow margin.
Arizona has 11 electors at stake, with the former president leading Vice President Kamala Harris 49% to 47%.
The Grand Canyon State is unique in that it is the only state among the seven states where Mr. Trump actually outperforms Mr. Harris among women, 50% to 47%, and disillusionment with the border czar is widespread among both men and women. It suggests that there is.
Trump's lead in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania is more subtle, but still significant: 49% to 48%, respectively. If this number holds, 51 more electors will go on the Republican ticket.
Worth noting: President Trump holds 49% during series of Emerson/The Hill polls in the Keystone State, pollster Spencer Kimball tells pollster Spencer Kimball that Trump's approval rating has plateaued suggests that it is possible. But with multiple candidates running, more than one may be enough in Pennsylvania.
Polls show close races in two other blue wall states that Harris must win to remain in the White House. In Michigan and Wisconsin, the candidates are tied at 49%.
Kimball says the divisions in organized labor partly explain the power dynamics in the battlegrounds of the blue wall. She won't go after Trump where Veep is stronger.
“Voters in union households lead Ms. Harris by 10 points (54% to 44%) in Michigan and 26 points (62% to 36%) in Wisconsin,” Kimball said. “Pennsylvania favors Trump 53% to 43%.”
Harris leads only in Nevada, where the spread is the narrowest, 48% to 47%.
But as with many polls, Trump appears to lack the support in the House, where he has a majority of candidates and his Democratic opponent also has one gubernatorial aspirant.
In Arizona, Kali Lake leads U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego by a 50% to 43% margin. Since Emerson's last appearance, the lead has increased by two points.
Michigan Republican Mike Rogers is favored by five votes to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but Emerson's calculations show that the margin is stable.
Nevada Republican Sam Brown has an 8-point lead over incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, who has a 50% approval rating.
Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a four-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, 50% to 46%. She has gained points since the last time this poll was run.
And Mark Robinson, the scandal-plagued lieutenant governor of North Carolina, is trailing Attorney General Josh Stein by a narrow margin of 50% to 34% in the gubernatorial race. That margin has doubled since the previous Emerson survey.
The only bright spot for Republicans is Pennsylvania, where Dave McCormick's challenge to Democratic Sen. Bob Casey appears durable. Although he is down 48% to 46%, his five-point lead in the previous Emerson poll has essentially narrowed.
