Visit of Syrian Foreign Minister to Moscow

Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani made a visit to Moscow on Thursday, marking the first trip by high-ranking officials from the Syrian “interim government” following the ousting of the Russian-supported Bashar Assad last December.

Russia heavily invested in financial and military support for the Assad regime throughout the devastating civil war that started in 2011. With backing from both Russia and Iran, Assad appeared to have gained control and solidified his power in Damascus. However, after the rapid defeat of Assad in December, both Russia and Iran have found themselves weakened due to their ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, respectively.

The newly established Syrian government is looking to secure Russia’s support, particularly as it seeks asylum for Assad, who left behind a significant part of the Syrian Treasury. Meanwhile, rebels have indicated that Russia has become increasingly concerned about its strategic interests in the region, including air and maritime operations initiated under Assad’s rule.

During his visit, Shaibani expressed that his meeting with Russian officials was aimed at repairing relations and establishing a foundation of “mutual respect.” He acknowledged that this period presents both challenges and opportunities to foster a united and strong Syria, adding that engaging Russia positively in this process was vital.

In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned potential economic recovery for Syria and expressed hope for progress moving forward after their discussion.

Both Shaibani and Lavrov briefly addressed recent violence, notably a massacre near Damascus involving the Druze minority by Jihadist and Arab Muslim groups. Shaibani thanked Russia for rejecting Israeli interventions, particularly in protecting the Syrian Druze.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned Israeli airstrikes, describing them as an arbitrary use of force and a breach of Syrian sovereignty and international law. There seems to be a noticeable decline in the Syrian government’s sentiment towards Russia following Moscow’s criticism of Israel’s actions.

Lavrov reminded Shaibani that Russia had previously expressed concerns regarding the Syrian government’s inability to adequately protect the Druze community in Sweida City.

He stated that the violence in Sweida and along the coast poses significant risks to both the regime and the citizenry. Lavrov underscored the need for national unity and civil peace to be extended to all Syrian groups and minorities.

Additionally, Lavrov urged Shaibani to fulfill his commitment to hold parliamentary elections, emphasizing the necessity for broad representation and participation from all facets of Syrian society.

The military government in Damascus confirmed plans for parliamentary elections scheduled from September 15 to 20. Ahmed Al-Sharara, who leads the Hayat Taharir al-Sham rebel group, is set to appoint one-third of the 210 parliamentary seats, while the rest will be filled via elections across all provinces.

However, Syria remains deeply fragmented compared to when the idea of a “comprehensive” parliament was first proposed by Sharaa. He was hoping to demonstrate that HTS could provide better governance than the previous regime, in pursuit of sanctions relief and investment from Western nations.

In addition to the violence against the Druze, significant violence has also erupted against the Shia minority, a faction of the Assad regime, amidst various attacks. This includes the tragic loss of numerous Christians in a church shooting in Damascus earlier this June.

Syrian Kurds, uneasy about the direction of the new government under Sharaa, fear for their security and feel threatened by potential compromises with Turkey.

Russia appears eager for pro-Moscow factions, particularly Alawites, to gain influence within the new government. After a series of Jihadi attacks in March, many Alawites sought refuge at the Russian Air Force Base in Hmeimim.

Shaibani, accompanied by Defense Minister Murkhaf Abu Kasra, discussed military bases while in Moscow. Russian Deputy Minister Sergei Versinin noted that these bases have been proposed by Russia as factors for regional stability, previously suggesting they could serve as “humanitarian hubs.”

“We continue to engage with Damascus on various issues, reaffirming our long-standing camaraderie with the Syrian populace,” Shaibani conveyed.

Interestingly, during his visit, Shaibani noted Russia’s support for “transitional justice” in Syria, hinting that handing over Assad for judgment could be part of negotiations, potentially involving the return of $2 billion from looted State Treasury funds as part of Russia’s cost for maintaining its strategic foothold in Syria.