Democracy and peace are not guaranteed when the dictator falls.
Look no further than Iraq. The aftermath of Saddam's fall shows that even the most intentional policies pose as “a new democracy” can backfire badly. Today, Iraq remains shaking from the continuation of results Deassimilation, Transient Failure of Justice and The vague constitution It has contributed to decades of unnecessary contributions Denominational violence and terrorism.
This does not have to be the case in Syria.
In his recent speech to the country, Ahmed Alshara, Syrian new self-appointed president; We pledged a reformed government It protects all minority rights He expressed his enthusiasm Saudi Arabia and modern Syria rivals its latest reforms.
The outlook is not promising. Recent Reports Of the fierce clashes between Alshala security forces and members of the religious minority of Alawite, more than 1,000 deaths have occurred in just two days, posing serious doubts about the country's stability.
Yes, Syria faces its own distinct challenges. But at the very least, we need to quickly avoid the fractures between the sects that have devastated Iraq after Saddam.
Iraq's policy of deassimilation is considered one of the most disastrous decisions. The government has almost rejected it 100,000 Baathist Experts – Party members under Saddam's administration – From their work, they dispersed the troops, restructured the government, primarily under Shia leadership, disproportionately affecting the Sunnis.
Worse, despite an ambitious plan to address Saddam's legacy of human rights abuses, focused transitional justice measures Purge and persecution Former verse player. Truth Committee Plan By the best Iraqi lawyers and judges It didn't come true, Working class educators, doctors and civil servants were Treated like Saddam's murderous accomplice. As a result, thousands of young Sunni men Joined a violent rebel group They are seeking retaliation, including the Islamic state. Among them was Saddam's most skilled commander;It became the main mid-Life of Caliph al-Baghdadihead of ISIS.
Syria must avoid a similar policy of deassimilation. For decades, More 80% Alawites – Bashar Assad's own ethnic group – worked under his government despite being composed around 10% of the country's population. However, in reality, most soldiers don't make much money. $35 a month After sYrian Pound lost 99% of its value This is the first time since the civil war in 2011. Alshara guaranteed Arawys There is no mass purge and A pardon to most of Assad's former soldiers.
But thousands of Alawi people It remains uncertain On their fate following the dissolution of Syrian military, security forces and Baatist government. The report shows that it is in the new administration Non-gimitally swapped thousands of senior managers A whole major institution with unqualified individuals. Meanwhile, the nation Reduce a third of public sector jobs Reduce waste and corruption and reduce the transition to a “competitive free market economy.”
The Alawi people too Look at the government of Alshara for protection Against active radicals in the country trying to resolve their scores with previous suffering. The main challenge is to balance the security of the Alawite community well despite the serious burden on existing resources and the overwhelming demands of the country.
nevertheless Officials are holding meetings with local Alawi leaders Emphasizing security and accountability for sectarian agitators, Alawis remains legitimate I'm nervous about their future. New reports from Syrian Human Rights Observation 1 or more states62 Alawi civilians were executed At the “field execution” in Syrian coastal province of Latakia. Additionally, fierce battles exploded in the Alawian-centralized city earlier this weekend, resulting in the death of an estimated 830 Alawian civilians by the security forces of Alshara. Analysts call this much more The worst violence in Syria This is the first time since rebels defeated Assad in December.
The situation is echoed caveat From a Syrian source cited in the New York Times: “If the new government cannot guarantee their safety, they will take matters into their own hands to protect themselves.”
These sectarian tensions could become a strategic asset for a country like Iran. Losing major national allies and accessing their important land routes It was used to smuggle weapons through Syria into a Lebanese proxy. The International Institute of Strategic Studies has estimated the existence of 70,000 Syrian fighters since 2014, loyal to Iran and Hezbollah. Hosted by Tehran. Ominously, the Iranian senior military brig. General Bells Esvati hinted With their potential utility earlier this year: “We can activate the social class where our guys have lived for years. We can work on social media and form resistant cells.”
Surprisingly, Syrian expert Aaron Y. Zerin from Washington Institute Confirmed The Iran-linked remnants of Assad are in fact responsible for causing the crisis and have been involved in 46 attacks in multiple states since January.
How the new Syrian constitution addresses these fundamental issues proves to be highly consequential. under Unfathomable pressure Stabilizing the country and in line with our deadlines, Iraq hastily drafted the constitution, blurring key issues of electricity sharing and governance in oil-rich regions, contributing to the transition to greater authoritarianism. in Al Arabia News Interview, Alshara appears to acknowledge these complexities, outlined a generous three- to four-year timeline for drafting and elections.
However, his administration must soften the different perspectives of Syria Diverse ethnic and religious populations – Including Kurds, Druzes and Christians – each has a distinct moral and cultural attitude. What's even more difficult is to balance the state and religion and support democratic values. Historically it was a challenge In the Middle East.
Al-Sharaa, a former leader of the al-Qaeda group Jabhat al-Nusra, today places herself more as a pragmatist. However, his interim government still includes many members of the conservative Salafist jihadist faction, which have already been removed. Darwin and Big Bang from the Public School Curriculum.
Syrian future relies precisely on these subtle policies and tactics evolving behind closed doors. The government of Alshara now needs to eliminate sectarian tensions and develop policies that support the rights and freedoms of all Syrians, the rights that have been rejected for more than 50 years, unlike those of Bashar Assad.
Syrians must hold their new leader accountable. Their future and life depend on it.
Sally Michael holds a Masters degree in conflict and terrorism from the University of Auckland, New Zealand.
