Syria's new interim government has tried to unite a large coalition of rebel groups and appeal to Western countries concerned about whether the country will repress minority communities or become a haven for violent extremists. and faces a difficult road ahead.
The rebels who toppled Bashar al-Assad's government this month are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, which is trying to rebrand itself as a more moderate Islamist movement. , need to prove that they are in a position of power.
HTS has already established an interim government to lead Syria until March 2025. Its acting prime minister is Mohammed al-Bashir, a former administrator of the HTS-governed northwestern province.
Whether HTS manages to peacefully unify the country will also be a key determining factor in how the United States, which has significant interests in Syria, will interact with the new government in Damascus. Further complicating matters is that President-elect Trump has called on the United States to stay out of Syria, and may withdraw about 900 American troops from Syria when he takes office on January 20th.
For now, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani portrays himself as a moderate to Western leaders and promises a new era.
“People are exhausted from the war.” he told Sky News. “In other words, this country is not ready for what's next and we're not going to take on another.”
Questions also remain about how much influence Turkey has over HTS, given its support for the insurgency, and it is likely that the US-designated terrorist organization will become functionally independent from the Turkish government in the coming months. It will begin to become clear whether
Osama Khalil, a professor at Syracuse University and a historian of the modern Middle East, said the measures taken by the HTS must be “in line with the realities on the ground,” especially when it comes to elections.
“Is this a free and fair election with multiple parties participating? Is there equal access to voting? Is it widespread throughout Syrian society?” he said. “Because you can also look at it the other way around, where Syria becomes the stage for a proxy conflict.”
The Sunni Muslim HTS rushed into Damascus in just about two weeks to overthrow the 50-year rule of the Assad family, but multiple factions are fighting for victory in the civil war that has roiled Syria since 2011. received support.
Many of these factions are at odds with each other.
One of the biggest supporters is the Syrian National Army, which is also backed by Turkey but has at times been an enemy of HTS.
The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls territory in the northeast with US support, also contributed to the overthrow of Assad. Turkish aid groups and the SDF have repeatedly clashed, including this week after the fall of Damascus, raising concerns that the conflict could escalate.
Ethnic minorities, including Druze, Christians, and Alawites, also formed the Southern Rebel Alliance and contributed to the overthrow of Assad, but questions remain as to how the newly in power rebels will deal with the remaining forces of Assad's Ba'ath Party. Big questions remain.
“The ability of HTS or any group to unite all these factions within Syria is a very difficult challenge,” said John Hoffman, a defense and foreign policy fellow at the Cato Institute.
“This is a classic revolutionary story,” he said. “In an uprising or any revolution, you can unite people for the common good of overthrowing the dictator, but as soon as the dictator falls, there is post-revolutionary infighting. It's very difficult to look back at those early days.''
There are some clues as to how HTS and its government will govern Syria. HTS ruled parts of northwest Syria, primarily Idlib province, for many years under what it called the Syrian Salvation Government. Syria's new acting prime minister, al-Bashir, headed that government group.
But if Idlib's rule is any indication of what's to come, many Western observers are concerned. Corruption and suppression of dissent.
Hoffman said HTS's rule in Idlib was “very authoritarian.”
“This is a concern for many Syrians, not only those under HTS control in Idlib, but also ethnic minorities across Syria,” he said. “That's not to say we should shed a lot of tears for Bashar al-Assad, but it's just being realistic.”
Khalil said the state of governance in Idlib raises questions about whether al-Golani is simply smiling at the camera “for the time being.”
“What you don't want to do is exchange Bashar al-Assad's brutal secular regime for a brutal religious theocracy,” he said.
HTS has its roots in its predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, which began in 2011 with the goal of establishing an Islamic state in Syria.
Although HTS has morphed into its own organization and severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, a report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank, says that HTS has been linked to Uyghur jihadist group Turkestan Islamic Party, several Uzbek holy groups, warrior groups and other groups made up of Chechens, North Caucasians, and Balkan fighters.
HTS is just one faction that can cause trouble within the Rebel Alliance. Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, explained that HTS is “not the only armed group in Damascus.”
“Syria is currently at a crossroads where there are great opportunities for us, but there are also significant risks. And we really need to consider both.” he said this week.
For now, the United States is taking a cautious stance, paying close attention to how the new Syrian government will handle the complex situation. After decades of brutal rule by the Assad family, Washington is wary of the potential repression of the country's minorities, especially Christians.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Turkey and meet with the president on Thursday before heading to Jordan. he stated in a statement This week, the US said it supports a “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition.”
“This transition process should lead to credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance that meets international standards of transparency and accountability,” he said, ensuring uninterrupted humanitarian access and He called for the protection of the armed forces and the abolition of chemical and biological weapons. It was procured by the Assad regime.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said it was unclear how the situation in Syria would “play out politically,” but that the rebels were “saying the right things” so far. Ta.
“But we'll have to see what they actually do,” Kirby told reporters this week.
However, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aims to rule out the possibility of a Kurdish state in Syria and may oppose the involvement of Kurdish factions in the coalition government. It continues to be a point of contention for the US government in Syria.
Kirby acknowledged that Turkey has counterterrorism threats that must be addressed, but also said the U.S. mission against ISIS, which has relied on cooperation with Kurdish fighters, will continue.
“And if these two goals overlap or potentially conflict, we will have appropriate discussions with the Turkish side about how we can achieve both outcomes,” he said.
Gönür Tol, founding director of the Turkey Program at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said in a webinar on Thursday that Turkey is likely to increase its involvement in Syria and seek to address the Kurdish issue in the future.
“The Turkish government will want the new government to deal with the Kurdish autonomous region. We don't know what will happen there, but it's important,” she said, adding that if U.S. forces withdraw from Syria, Erdogan and He added that President Trump may be off to a good start.
MEI senior researcher Wael al-Zayat said at the event that Syrians are excited about the possibility of forming a new government.
“What the local Syrians want is a balanced approach from the United States,” Al-Zayat said, pointing out the need for humanitarian aid and assistance such as digging up mass graves. He said this initial cooperation framework not only begins to legitimize HTS, but also gives the United States an opportunity to keep it honest.
The United States imposed sanctions on Syria during the Assad regime. It also designated HTS as a terrorist organization with a $10 million bounty on Al-Golani's head.
Bruce Hoffman, senior fellow on counterterrorism and homeland security at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the United States should take a “wait-and-see” approach to HTS before lifting sanctions or designations.
“A few days is not enough time to prove it, but that evidence may not be available even after a year,” he said. “it is [al-Golani] And over time, HTS proves itself not just by words but by actions. ”
